Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.22%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 32.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.92%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match.