Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 43.89%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 27.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hajduk Split would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.09) 
