Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Sep 15, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
3 - 0
HJK Helsinki

Dybala (47'), Pellegrini (49'), Belotti (68')
Ibanez (25'), Cristante (60')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Hetemaj (29'), Halme (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Roma and HJK Helsinki, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

Last Six:

Last Game: Empoli 1-2 Roma
Monday, September 12 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
4	Udinese	6	6	13
5	Roma	6	2	13
6	Inter Milan	6	4	12

We said: Roma 2-0 HJK Helsinki

While HJK's players will have been anticipating their trip to Rome since the draw was first made, they are set to return home empty-handed due to the gulf in resources available to both coaches. Even if Jose Mourinho rotates his squad, the hosts can record their first Group C win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 10.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.06%) and 3-0 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.19%), while for a HJK Helsinki win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	HJK Helsinki
65.66% ( -0.28)	23.74% ( 0.1)	10.59% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 30.64% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.14% (

0.03)

64.85% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.21% (

0.02)

83.79% (

-0.02)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.27% (

-0.09)

19.73% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.25% (

-0.15)

51.75% (

0.15)

HJK Helsinki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

38.17% (

0.37)

61.83% (

-0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

8.44% (

0.18)

91.56% (

-0.17)

Score Analysis

Roma 65.65%

HJK Helsinki 10.59%

Draw 23.74%

Roma	Draw	HJK Helsinki
1-0 @ 19.79% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 16.06% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 8.69% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 7.73% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.7% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.83% Total : 65.65%	0-0 @ 12.19% ( -0.01) 1-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.74%	0-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.03% Total : 10.59%