Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 27, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Sweden
5 - 0
Azerbaijan

Forsberg (38'), Mustafazada (65' og.), Gyokeres (79'), Karlsson (88'), Elanga (89')
Gyokeres (24')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Cafarquliyev (28'), Isaev (45')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Sweden and Azerbaijan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sweden

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Sweden 0-3 Belgium
Friday, March 24 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Sweden	0	0	0
2	Serbia	0	0	0
3	Norway	0	0	0
4	Slovenia	0	0	0

Azerbaijan

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Austria 4-1 Azerbaijan
Friday, March 24 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current League C3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Kazakhstan	0	0	0
2	Belarus	0	0	0
3	Azerbaijan	0	0	0
4	Slovakia	0	0	0

We said: Sweden 2-0 Azerbaijan

Despite suffering a convincing defeat to Belgium on Friday, we expect Sweden to bounce back with a relatively comfortable victory against Azerbaijan at Friends Stadium. Although the visitors do not represent the pushovers they may have done around a decade ago, the return of Ibrahimovic should provide plenty of character and ability to Sweden's frontline, especially with Kulusevski able to enjoy starting from a wider position. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 55.04%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 20.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.

Result
Sweden	Draw	Azerbaijan
55.04% ( -0.35)	24.56% ( 0.03)	20.4% ( 0.31)

Both teams to score 47.66% (

0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.56% (

0.24)

53.44% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.03% (

0.2)

74.97% (

-0.21)

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.66% (

-0.04)

19.34% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.89% (

-0.07)

51.11% (

0.07)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.09% (

0.48)

40.91% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.52% (

0.42)

77.48% (

-0.43)

Score Analysis

Sweden 55.02%

Azerbaijan 20.4%

Draw 24.55%

Sweden	Draw	Azerbaijan
1-0 @ 12.99% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 10.67% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.85% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.23% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.15% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.89% Total : 55.02%	1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.55%	0-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.22% Total : 20.4%