FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 7, 2023 at 12.30pm UK

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Reading
2 - 0
Watford

Abretti (45+3'), Long (90+3')
Hutchinson (13'), Mbengue (69')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Morris (59'), Adu-Poku (86')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Reading and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Reading

All competitions

Last Game: West Brom 1-0 Reading
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Watford

All competitions

Last Game: Norwich 0-1 Watford
Monday, January 2 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

With both managers likely to tinker with their squads, this is an even more unpredictable fixture than it may have been with full-strength sides. While Reading will still be confident of registering yet another home win this campaign, we feel that a greater freedom for Watford to express themselves may lead to a narrow away victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 49.07%. A win for Reading had a probability of 25.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest Reading win was 1-0 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.

Result
Reading	Draw	Watford
25.59% ( 0.11)	25.35% ( 0.03)	49.07% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 51.33% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.37% (

-0.05)

51.63% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.58% (

-0.04)

73.41% (

0.04)

Reading Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.02% (

0.07)

34.97% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.28% (

0.07)

71.72% (

-0.07)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.94% (

-0.08)

21.06% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.14% (

-0.13)

53.86% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Reading 25.59%

Watford 49.06%

Draw 25.34%

Reading	Draw	Watford
1-0 @ 7.74% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.33% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.09% Total : 25.59%	1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( 0) Other @ 1% Total : 25.34%	0-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.39% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.88% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.64% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 2.48% Total : 49.06%