FC Cincinnati will look to climb off the foot of the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference table on Saturday, when they play host to high-flying Colorado Rapids.
Cincinnati sit at the bottom of the table having won just one game this season, while their opponents have had a much stronger start to the campaign, sitting in fourth spot in the Western Conference as a result.
Match preview
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With just four points from their opening six games of the domestic season, FC Cincinnati find themselves at the foot of the Eastern Conference.
However, they may have shown slight signs of improvement prior to the recent three-week break, firstly picking up their only win of the season so far as they played CF Montreal away from home.
Their opponents took the lead in the 56th minute through Dorde Mihailovic, but Jurgen Locadia netted the equaliser with 20 minutes to go before Gustavo Vallecilla hit an 86th-minute winner to seal their first three-point haul of the season.
They then showed more positive signs in the final game before the break, even despite suffering a defeat, as they were narrowly beaten 1-0 by Conference leaders New England Revolution, with Adam Buksa netting the only goal of the game in the 70th minute.
Having lost both of their games on home turf so far this season, manager Jaap Stam will hope that their Ohio stadium being full for the first time in 20 months will inspire his side to their second win of the season at the weekend, as they look to build on two promising performances and climb off the bottom of the table.
That will be no easy task, though, as they take on a Colorado side who will be looking to extend a strong start to the season.
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After a slow first two weeks of the campaign, with one point from their first two league outings, the Rapids have since won four of their five MLS games to quickly move up to fourth spot in the Western Conference.
They started with a three-game winning run, defeating Vancouver Whitecaps, Minnesota United and Houston Dynamo before they were beaten 2-1 by Los Angeles FC, courtesy of a Diego Rossi brace.
Robin Fraser's men bounced back instantly from that loss though, thrashing FC Dallas 3-0 in the following game thanks to goals from Keegan Rosenberry and Michael Barrios either side of a Tanner Tessman own goal.
Upon the return from the international break, Colorado will hope to pick up where they left off and secure a second straight victory to potentially build another winning run, piling the pressure on the three sides who narrowly sit above Fraser's men in the table.
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Team News
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Given their fairly poor start to the season, FC Cincinnati have made lots of changes to the side, with only right-back Joseph-Claude Gyau and left-back Ronald Matarrita featuring in every minute of their six league games so far.
Matarrita has been one of the key men in their attacking play, having assisted three of the Ohio outfit's six MLS goals in their first six matches of the campaign.
However, they are yet to find a consistent scorer this season, with no one in the squad netting more than one goal so far.
Their hopes may fall on 21-year-old Brazilian forward Brenner, who hit 21 goals in all competitions for Sao Paulo last season.
In contrast to their opponents, Colorado have kept a fairly consistent XI throughout the season, with defenders Keegan Rosenberry, Auston Trusty, and Danny Wilson all having played every minute so far.
Meanwhile, Michael Barrios has become a staple in the front line, hitting two goals and two assists in his first seven games for the club.
Goalkeeper William Yarbrough will go in search of his fourth clean sheet of the MLS season, having delivered some impressive performances between the sticks.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Vermeer; Gyau, Stanko, Cameron, Vallecilla, Matarrita; Cruz, Kubo, Acosta; Brenner, Locadia
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Rosenberry, Wilson, Trusty, Vines; Price, Mezquida; Lewis, Bassett, Barrios; Rubio
We say: FC Cincinnati 0-2 Colorado Rapids
Despite Cincinnati beginning to look more positive in recent games, we still see the visitors being too strong on Saturday, picking up their fifth win of the season as a result.
Colorado have looked formidable at both ends of the pitch this season and come into this game with plenty of momentum, while their opponents are yet to pick up a point on home turf and could again fall short against a stronger outfit.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colorado Rapids win with a probability of 63.31%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 15.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colorado Rapids win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.49%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 1-0 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colorado Rapids would win this match.
