Fluminense will be hoping to bounce back from a surprise domestic defeat, when they take on Barcelona SC in the first leg of their Copa Libertadores quarter-final on Friday.
The hosts have won just two of their last six home games across all competitions, while the visitors have only won two of their last six matches on the road.
Match preview
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Fluminense progressed from the Copa Libertadores last 16, after winning 3-0 on aggregate against Paraguayan side Cerro Porteno.
A 2-0 away victory in the first leg was followed by a narrow 1-0 win on home soil last week, with veteran striker Fred scoring the only goal of the game from the penalty spot.
Since then, Fluminense suffered a surprise 1-0 loss to America Mineiro in the Brasileiro on Sunday. This defeat was their third league setback in a row which has seen them slip down to 13th in the table, just three points above the relegation zone.
Roger Machado is now tasked with turning his side's fortunes around domestically, but he will first turn his attention to their Copa Libertadores quarter-final clash against Barcelona SC, a side who they have only ever faced once before in their history.
The Brazilians lost 3-1 on home soil against their Ecuadorian counterparts in a pre-season tournament friendly in 2018.
Fluminense have been eliminated at the quarter-final stage of the Copa Libertadores in each of their last two appearances in the competition, losing in 2012 and 2013 to Olimpia ad Boca Juniors respectively.
Machado will be hoping that they can go one step further this year and reach the last four for the first time since 2008.
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For the first time in four years, Barcelona SC have advanced into the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals after a 3-2 aggregate win over Velez Sarsfield last month.
Despite losing the first leg 1-0 away from home, Fabian Bustos's men were able to turn the tie around with a 3-1 victory in the second leg on home soil. Jonathan Perlaza's 80th-minute strike proved to be the winning goal that sent the Ecuadorians through.
Since then, Barcelona SC came from behind to win 2-1 against crosstown rivals Guayaquil City last weekend, to extend their winning run across all competitions to five matches.
Bustos has guided his team to three victories in their opening three league games and they sit joint-top of the LigaPro along with Independiente del Valle.
The 16-time Ecuadorian champions and current holders are the most successful side in their country, though they are yet to get their hands on continental silverware. The closest they have come was back in 1990 and 1998, losing in the Copa Libertadores final on both occasions.
Barcelona SC will be looking to take an advantage into the second leg against Fluminense, as they aim to reach the semi-finals for the first time since 2017.
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Team News
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Fluminense remain without midfielder Hudson, who continues to recover from a long-term knee injury, while on-loan striker Caio Paulista is set to miss out again with a thigh problem.
In addition, centre-back Nino is set for a short break away from club action after recently winning a goal medal with Brazil at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.
Paraguayan forward Raul Bobadilla – who has only just returned from a calf strain – tested positive for coronavirus last week, and so he will also be unavailable for selection as he has to self-isolate.
Despite defeat to America Mineiro last weekend, Machado may decide to name the same starting lineup, which would see an attacking quartet of Kayky, Nene, Lucca Brito and Fred all remain in the first XI.
As for Barcelona SC, Bustos could name a similar side to the one that played in the second leg against Velez last month.
Leonel Quinonez and Mario Pineida had been rotated at left-back earlier on this season, but as the latter has started in each of the last four matches, he is expected to get the nod on Friday.
Damian Diaz, who has scored eight goals and provided three assists so far this season, is set to start in the number 10 role in behind lone striker Carlos Garces.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Marcos; Xavier, Claro, Manoel, Egidio; Yago, Martinelli; Kayky, Nene, Brito; Fred
Barcelona SC possible starting lineup:
Burrai; Castillo, Leon, Riveros, Pinaida; Molina, Pinatares; Martinez, Diaz, Cortez; Garces
We say: Fluminense 1-1 Barcelona SC
With a place in the semi-finals at stake, both Fluminense and Barcelona SC will be keen to ensure they remain in the tie heading into next week's second leg.
A cagey contest is expected on Friday and with little to separate the two sides, a score draw could be on the cards at the Maracana Stadium.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 56.19%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Barcelona SC had a probability of 19.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.87%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.43%), while for a Barcelona SC win it was 0-1 (6.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
