If Fluminense want a chance to return to the Copa Libertadores next season, they have to win their final match of this Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A campaign on Thursday versus Chapecoense at the Maracana.
This will be the last game in the top flight for Chape before dropping down into Serie B in 2022, while Flu are in seventh, two points behind Bragantino and a qualification spot in that coveted South American competition.
Match preview
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Coming into this month, Marcao had to be feeling pretty good about his team's chances to make it into the top five, but the tail end of this domestic campaign has not gone according to plan.
Flu entered December as winners of three of their last four league games played in the previous month, but they could not maintain that momentum, squandering an early lead in a 2-1 defeat to Atletico Mineiro and failing to make their chances count this past weekend, losing 2-0 to Bahia.
Despite having over 60% of the possession in their Sunday fixture, they were unable to keep their composure in the final third and lacked aggressiveness, with only one targeted effort even though they strung together over 500 passes over the 90 minutes.
This is a team that possess plenty of speed and quality out wide, and when they are capable of isolating their wing-backs into 1v1 situations, they can be dangerous.
While this group have not generated a ton of quality scoring opportunities, Fluzao tend to do an excellent job at maintaining their positions as their wingers have been exceptional at pressing inwards to trap opposing midfielders and create plenty of turnovers.
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Chape will want to soak in every minute of what is left of their top-flight experience this week as they will not be in Serie A for at least another year following their game on Thursday.
Their caretaker manager, Felipe Paiva Endres, has failed to make much of an impact on this group since taking over at the end of October with only two draws to show for his time as the boss, with his side currently in the middle of a six-game losing streak.
Over their previous two matches, it seems as though the team from Santa Catarina are doing everything possible to avoid humiliation rather than play to win, particularly on Monday when they only put together 213 passes and held Sport Recife goalless until the 88th minute, losing 1-0.
While attempting to keep the score respectable, the pressure of all of that defending has eventually caught up to them, conceding a goal in each of their previous five contests with less than 20 minutes remaining.
Even though the last goal from Chape came via an own goal against Gremio, this team did put together a good performance at home to Fluminense in September, fighting back after going two goals behind in the opening 18 minutes, with 55% possession and more than 500 passes, but ultimately lost 2-1.
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Team News
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Manoel will miss the final Serie A fixture for Flu this season after being red-carded along with Rossi of Bahia in the second half of that encounter this past weekend.
On Sunday, Danilo Barcelos and Luccas Claro were the new additions to the starting 11, replacing Marlon Xavier and David Braz.
Goals from Raul Bobadilla and Luiz Henrique helped Flu defeat Chape in the first matchup between these teams as Henrique is tied with Fred for the team lead with five goals and Bobadilla has three, putting him even with Lucca and Yago Felipe.
A part of why Chapecoense were so defensive on Monday has to do with the fact that Geuvanio was sent off after nine minutes of play, while Mike and Rene Junior collected yellow cards in the opening half and, as a result, were less aggressive with their challenges in the second 45 minutes.
Geuvanio will join Vagner and Tiepo on the sidelines for this one, as Vagner has a ruptured knee ligament and Tiepo is missing due to a knee injury.
Pedro Perotti was the only player to find the back of the net for his team the last time these two sides faced each other as he has three on the season, while the last goal from a Chape player came courtesy of Kaio Nunes, who had a brace in a 2-2 draw with Flamengo in November.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
M. Felipe; Barcelos, Claro, Ferraz, S. Xavier; Y. Felipe, Wellington, Arias; Paulista, Fred, Henrique
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Ezequiel, Joilson, Ignacio, Busanello; Ronei, Ribeiro, Ravanelli; Mike, Perotti, B. Silva
We say: Fluminense 1-0 Chapecoense
Flu have won five straight matches at the Maracana, and they have not been easy games either, putting three past Flamengo and netting twice against Palmeiras while only conceding once in their last four games.
Perhaps the best news for Chape at this point is that their campaign is nearly over, and they can hopefully regroup in Serie B next season, but they will still want to finish the year strong, although it seems as though they do not have the personnel to pick up any points in this one.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 64%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 13.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.6%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
