Freiburg's hopes of a remarkable top-four finish in the Bundesliga remain alive as they prepare to host VfL Bochum at the Europa-Park Stadion on Saturday.
The hosts returned to winning ways with a vital victory last weekend, whilst the visitors had to settle for a goalless draw during an impressive season of their own.
Match preview
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Nils Petersen was once again the hero from the bench as Freiburg defeated Eintracht Frankfurt at Deutsche Bank Park last Sunday.
The striker netted his fifth Bundesliga goal of the season just eight minutes after his arrival onto the pitch, which provided Christian Streich's men with the lead for the second time in the match, after Vincenzo Grifo's first-half goal had been pegged back by Filip Kostic shortly after half time.
Boasting the division's third-best defensive record, Freiburg's stubborn defence was once again key to the victory at Frankfurt, and will be one of the primary reasons for their impressive achievements this season regardless of the final few weeks.
With only three points separating them from RB Leipzig in fourth place, Streich's side would certainly upset the odds were they to prevent one of the 'bigger' teams - Bayer Leverkusen or Leipzig - from qualifying for next season's Champions League.
A DFB-Pokal final could well be on the cards in the coming weeks too, with Freiburg set to make the trip to 2.Bundesliga outfit Hamburger SV in their semi-final tie on Tuesday, but their attentions must be fully focused on the task at hand on Saturday first.
No matter what happens between now and the end of the campaign, Freiburg can be proud of their successful year, but they will certainly be eager to have something to show for it, and victory on Saturday could be crucial to their chances of being able to.
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Meanwhile, although Bochum occupy 12th spot in the Bundesliga at the time of writing, their own season has been just as impressive as Freiburg's has.
After being promoted from the 2.Bundesliga last summer, the minnows had very low expectations upon their return to the top flight, and after a dismal start, there was little hope in their chances of avoiding the drop.
However, fast forward several months and Die Unabsteigbaren boast a 10-point advantage over Arminia Bielefeld in the relegation playoff spot.
Positive results against top-four-chasing Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in their last two outings have certainly eased any pressure coming into the final five games, and Thomas Reis's side can surely begin to prepare for an extended stay in the Bundesliga.
Following a fantastic 2-1 win over Hoffenheim on their last away day two weeks ago, thanks to a brace from Takuma Asano, Bochum were unfortunate not to record back-to-back victories when they welcomed third-placed Leverkusen to the Vonovia Ruhrstadion last time out.
Reis's men had their fair share of the play and could well have nicked all three points, but it was an excellent result nevertheless and means Bochum make the trip to Freiburg possessing plenty of confidence as they look to damage a side's top-four hopes for a third successive week.
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Team News
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Streich must decide whether to leave Petersen as an impact sub, or whether to throw him into the starting 11 ahead of either Ermedin Demirovic or Lucas Holer, for Freiburg on Saturday.
The hosts will be without just two players once more against Bochum, with Yannik Keitel remaining on the sidelines due to a broken toe and young winger Kevin Schade continuing to struggle with an abdominal problem.
As a result, very few changes are expected to Streich's usually-settled lineup, meaning the only alteration could well be up top.
As for the visitors, they too are unlikely to make many, if any, changes at the Europa-Park Stadion, owing to their success in their last two outings.
Armel Bella-Kotchap dislodged Erhan Masovic from the centre of defence after returning from suspension against Leverkusen last week, whilst Simon Zoller returned from a seven-month injury absence to make a brief appearance from the bench.
The forward is highly unlikely to start a fixture over the next couple of weeks however, meaning Sebastian Polter should keep his place up front, with Milos Pantovic and Asano providing support from the wide areas.
Christopher Antwi-Adjei and Jurgen Locadia are the only two absentees for Bochum, with the duo being ruled out due to groin and hip injuries respectively.
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Lienhart, N Schlotterbeck, Gunter; Eggestein, Hofler; Sallai, Holer, Grifo; Petersen
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Gamboa, Bella-Kotchap, Leitsch, Soares; Stafylidis, Losilla; Pantovic, Rexhbecaj, Asano; Polter
We say: Freiburg 2-1 VfL Bochum
This is likely to be a tight game between two sides that are so full of confidence, and also two that are so evenly matched when solid defensive setups are taken into account.
Home advantage is likely to be key here with full stadiums being allowed in the Bundesliga in recent weeks, so we are predicting a raucous atmosphere at the Europa-Park Stadion to roar on a narrow home victory to keep Freiburg's top-four hopes alive.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 52.25%. A win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 25.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest VfL Bochum win was 1-2 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
