Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 68.47%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 14.36%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 3-1 (7.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.54%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-2 (4.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
68.47% ( -0.73)	17.18% ( 0.34)	14.36% ( 0.4)

Both teams to score 60.35% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.19% (

-0.78)

30.8% (

0.78)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.84% (

-0.93)

52.15% (

0.93)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.78% (

-0.35)

8.22% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.24% (

-0.88)

28.75% (

0.89)

Shakhtar Donetsk Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.75% (

-0)

34.25% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.05% (

-0.01)

70.95% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Ajax 68.47%

Shakhtar Donetsk 14.36%

Draw 17.18%

Ajax	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.79% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.18) 4-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 4.57% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.11) 5-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.1) 5-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.06) 6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.06) 6-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.06) 4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.81% Total : 68.47%	1-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.28% Total : 17.18%	1-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.44% Total : 14.36%