Genoa and Benevento head into Wednesday's fixture at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium having lost their last two fixtures in Serie A.
Despite starting the game four places adrift of their hosts, Benevento will move ahead of their 13th-placed opponents if they record maximum points.
Match preview
© Reuters
Sitting as close to mid-table as they are to the relegation zone, Genoa could be forgiven for thinking that they are on the brink of securing their top-flight status for another 12 months.
However, with two points separating five teams between 13th and 17th, Davide Ballardini's side can ill-afford any slip-ups if they want to enjoy a stress-free end to the campaign.
Genoa have given solid accounts of themselves in away defeats at Juventus and AC Milan, but a failure to collect any points from that double-header has only given encouragement to the chasing pack.
While Genoa's run-in is more favourable than the ones in front of their rivals, they have now only won once in 10 matches, that victory coming away at struggling Parma.
On a positive note, Il Grifone have scored in their last five matches, with Mattia Destro and Gianluca Scamacca sharing five goals between them.
Like their hosts, Benevento have only posted one victory in recent months, their solitary success in 15 encounters coming away at champions Juventus.
Nevertheless, Filippo Inzaghi's team have managed to stay above the bottom three, leaving them in a position where success on Wednesday night could dramatically improve their chances of staying in this division.
Inzaghi would have been impressed by the character shown against Lazio, his players fighting back from 3-0 down to 4-3 before eventually conceding a late fifth.
With home games against two of the bottom three still to come, Gli Stregoni will not panic if they record a third successive defeat on Wednesday.
However, with trips to Milan and Atalanta BC on their upcoming schedule, Inzaghi will demand a performance similar to the one which was enough to earn a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture back in December.
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Inzaghi will almost certainly make a number of changes to his Benevento XI after their slow start at Lazio.
Nicolas Viola should come into central midfield, while Iago Falque will be considered for a role in the final third.
Gianluca Lapadula may also return to the team in attack, taking the place of Adolfo Gaich.
Ballardini switched to a 3-5-2 formation at the weekend, citing a lack of available full-backs for his change in tactics.
Davide Biraschi could come into the team at right wing-back, but Destro and Scamacca should keep their spots ahead of Marko Pjaca.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Goldaniga, Radovanovic, Masiello; Biraschi, Zajc, Badelj, Strootman, Cassata; Destro, Scamacca
Benevento possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Depaoli, Glik, Barba, Letizia; Ionita, Viola, Improta; Insigne, Sau; Lapadula
We say: Genoa 1-1 Benevento
With both sides still involved in a relegation battle, do not expect either manager to name an attack-minded team. Nevertheless, a competitive draw could still be played out, a result which would boost their hopes of survival.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 36.92%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 36.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Benevento win was 0-1 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
