MX23RW : Wednesday, December 18 20:47:57| >> :600:5730934:5730934:
[monks data]
Guatemala national football team
CONCACAF Gold Cup | Group Stage
Jul 15, 2021 at 2.30am UK
Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores
Mexico national football team

Guatemala
0 - 3
Mexico


Santis (20'), Betancourth (36')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Funes Mori (29', 55'), Pineda (79')

Preview: Guatemala vs. Mexico - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's CONCACAF Gold Cup clash between Guatemala and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Guatemala will look to pick up their first victory at the Gold Cup since 2011 when they face Mexico on Wednesday at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

The last-minute entrants held El Salvador scoreless until the 81st minute, eventually losing their opener 2-0, while the defending champions failed to solve a hot goalkeeper in their first match, drawing 0-0 with Trinidad and Tobago.


Match preview

Mexico manager Gerardo Martino on June 6, 2021© Reuters

With very little time to prepare after being told they would participate in this competition, their performance on Sunday may have been as much as manager Rafael Loredo could have asked for given the circumstances.

They had only 31% of the possession, but their defensive shape was solid until El Salvador finally found a breakthrough in the latter stages of that match.

Having to face the defending champions in Mexico, who will be desperate for a win, is a terrifying prospect, and the Guatemalan back three will be tested against a side that they have not beaten since a friendly in 2007.

They are likely to face a barrage of Mexican pressure, so they will need to play a near-perfect match to keep them at bay, but this team will be confident in their defensive game, having conceded a mere three times in their last 14 international fixtures.

Allowing multiple goals in a game was a rare sight to see for this team and something that, before their match on Sunday, they had not done since a 2-0 defeat in a friendly to Paraguay in June 2019.

The Mexicans were dominant in virtually every facet of their opening match with Trinidad and Tobago, except the most important one, the scoreboard.

Gerardo Martino saw his team earn 83% possession, firing 30 shots with a pass accuracy of 90%, so he has to be wondering how on earth they could not find a breakthrough against a side that were inferior to them in every respect.

Martino knows that his side will be facing one of the stingiest defensive squads in CONCACAF, and he will have the challenge of finding the right tactics to break down the Guatemalans, who might have 10 players behind the ball in most instances.

One area of their game that does not need fixing is their play defensively, as they have maintained four consecutive clean sheets and have not allowed a shot on target in their last three games.

In their last three appearances at this competition, El Tri have only won their second group stage match once, producing two 0-0 draws.

Guatemala CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
  • L

Guatemala form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L

Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup form:
  • D

Mexico form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D



Team News

Mexico defender Cesar Jasib Montes Castro celebrates his goal on July 1, 2021© Reuters

Nicholas Hagen could be in for another busy night in goal for Guatemala, having faced six shots against El Salvador, and he will hope that his back three of Moises Hernandez, Jose Pinto and Gerardo Gordillo are a lot stronger versus a dynamic Mexican attack.

Midfielder Marco Dominguez and Jorge Aparicio will have to provide better service to strikers Luis Martinez and Jairo Arreola if they are to pull off an upset on Wednesday.

Hector Herrera may have been the best Mexican on the pitch against Trinidad and Tobago, hitting the goalpost with a superb first-half strike and setting up numerous quality opportunities down the wing for his side.

Goalkeeper Alfredo Talavera has not had to make a save for the Mexicans in his last two starts, while striker Jesus Corona is without a goal in his previous three fixtures and Hirving Lozano is out of the tournament after suffering a head injury in the 11th minute of their opening match.

Guatemala possible starting lineup:
Hagen; Hernandez, Pinto, Gordillo; Galindo, Dominguez, Aparicio, Santis; Arreola, Martinez, Betancourth

Mexico possible starting lineup:
Talavera; Rodriguez, Araujo, Moreno, Gallardo; Herrera, Alvarez, Pineda; Corona, Funes Mori, Pulido


SM words green background

We say: Guatemala 0-3 Mexico

Guatemala have done a masterful job over the past couple of years when it comes to shutting down opposing attacks, but they have never really faced a side that possess the quality that Mexico does.

El Tri were unlucky in their opening match, and even with the loss of Lozano, it should just be a question of patience against Guatemala before they find their opening.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Joel Lefevre

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guatemala win with a probability of 39%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 36.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guatemala win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.63%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest Mexico win was 1-2 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Curacao vs Mexico

Curacao
13.3%
Draw
15.6%
Mexico
71.1%
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
1 United States USA32107
2 Jamaica Jamaica32107
3Trin. & Tob.31023
4 Saint Kitts and Nevis flag Saint Kitts30030

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Mexico Mexico32016
2 Qatar Qatar31114
3 Honduras flag Honduras31114
4Haiti31023

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Panama flag Panama32107
2 Costa Rica flag Costa Rica31114
3Martinique31023
4El Salvador30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1Guatemala32107
2 Canada Canada31205
3Guadeloupe31114
4 Cuba Cuba30030


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