Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League match between Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bayer Leverkusen travel to Israel to face Hapoel Be'er Sheva in Group C of the Europa League, with all four sides in the group level on three points.

Leverkusen stumbled last time out in a 1-0 defeat at Slavia Prague, with Be'er Sheva also losing 1-0 at Nice.

Match preview

Josue of Hapoel Be'er Sheva scores against Motherwell in the Europa League on September 24, 2020 © Reuters

Be'er Sheva are a dangerous proposition at home, having won seven of their last eight home matches in this competition - although several of those were qualifiers.

The most recent of those victories came against Slavia Prague in a 3-1 win, with two late goals from Elton Acolatse enough to earn a crucial three points.

The Israeli outfit struggled to make much of an impact at Patrick Vieira's Nice, though, having just two shots on target and 35% possession, but were far from disgraced in a 1-0 defeat.

Leverkusen will almost certainly represent an increase in standard in terms of opposition, though, with the German side the most talented and experienced opposition they will face in the group. Yossi Abukasis will be hoping he can lean on his side's impressive recent home record in this competition to cause another upset.

Bayer Leverkusen's Moussa Diaby celebrates scoring against Rangers in the Europa League on August 6, 2020 © Reuters

Indeed, Peter Bosz will be guarding his players against any form of complacency ahead of their trip to Israel, especially having been defeated 1-0 at Slavia Prague in their most recent European match.

In fairness, Leverkusen were far from helped by Karim Bellarabi's 22nd minute red card in that match, and did well to hold out until Peter Olayinka's 80th minute winner.

Bosz will be hoping his side put in a performance much more comparable to the 6-2 thrashing of Nice on the opening matchday, when Lucas Alario was amongst the goalscorers. The Argentine striker has been in sensational form since returning from the international break, stepping up in Patrik Schick's injury-enforced absence to score six goals in five matches.

With the likes of Moussa Diaby and Nadiem Amiri in excellent form in support, on paper there is little doubt who should win this match, but of course football does not always work out that way.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva Europa League form: WWWWWL
Hapoel Be'er Sheva form (all competitions): WWWDLD

Bayer Leverkusen Europa League form: WL
Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions): DWWWLW

Team News

Bayer Leverkusen manager Peter Bosz pictured in February 2019 © Reuters

Abukasis will be without Gal Levi and Amit Bitton, who have both suffered cruciate ligament ruptures and will be out for some time as a result.

Otherwise the Israeli outfit appear to be at full strength, with Acolatse tasked with leading the line in what will likely be a defensive strategy to contain their stronger opposition.

Bosz, meanwhile, is still without Schick due to the Czech Republic striker's torn muscle. Paulinho and Santiago Arias are long-term absentees with a cruciate ligament rupture and fibula fracture respectively.

Karim Bellarabi is suspended after his red card in Prague.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva possible starting lineup:
Levita; Dadya, Taha, Vitor, Kabha, Goldberg; Sallallich, Bareiro, Josue, Yosefi; Acolatse

Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Jedvaj, Tah, Dragovic, Wendell; Baumgartlinger, Demirbay; Bailey, Wirtz, Diaby; Alario

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We say: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen

Despite Be'er Sheva's good form at home in this competition in the past year or so, most of those matches have been against sides with far less quality than Leverkusen have at their disposal.

We expect the German outfit to have a little too much, albeit they will likely be pushed all the way.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 43.38%. A win for Hapoel Be'er Sheva had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.63%) and 0-2 (5.81%). The likeliest Hapoel Be'er Sheva win was 2-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.