Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albirex Niigata win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 32.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Albirex Niigata win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
Sagan Tosu	Draw	Albirex Niigata
32.42% ( 0.04)	26.15% ( 0.07)	41.43% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 53.01% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.58% (

-0.26)

51.42% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.77% (

-0.23)

73.23% (

0.23)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.24% (

-0.1)

29.76% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.17% (

-0.12)

65.83% (

0.12)

Albirex Niigata Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.46% (

-0.17)

24.54% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.99% (

-0.24)

59.01% (

0.24)

Score Analysis

Sagan Tosu 32.42%

Albirex Niigata 41.43%

Draw 26.14%

Sagan Tosu	Draw	Albirex Niigata
1-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 7.54% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 32.42%	1-1 @ 12.43% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.14%	0-1 @ 10.26% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.74% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.21% ( 0) 1-3 @ 4.09% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.66% Total : 41.43%