Mainz 05 will be looking to move clear of the bottom three in the Bundesliga table when they continue their 2019-20 campaign away to FC Koln on Sunday afternoon.
The action in Germany's top flight has been on hold for more than two months due to the coronavirus outbreak, but there is a full set of fixtures this weekend, including a clash between Koln and Mainz at RheinEnergieStadion.
Match preview
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Koln secured promotion back to the Bundesliga by winning Germany's second tier last season, and Markus Gisdol's side have enjoyed a productive campaign to date, picking up 32 points from their 25 matches to occupy 10th position in the table.
The Cologne-based outfit are currently 10 points clear of the bottom three and have won 10 of their 25 league fixtures this term, which is a strong record for a newly-promoted outfit.
Koln, who have actually won the Bundesliga on two occasions, were also in strong form before football was called to a halt in March, winning three of their last four league encounters.
Gisdol's team actually thumped Hertha Berlin 5-0 before beating Schalke 04 3-0 on home soil, although they did suffer a 2-1 defeat at Borussia Monchengladbach in their last fixture on March 11.
Koln have won five of their last six Bundesliga matches in front of their own supporters, meanwhile, with the only disappointment during that run being a 4-1 reverse to champions Bayern Munich on February 16.
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Mainz, meanwhile, currently occupy 15th position in the table, just four points clear of 16th-placed Fortuna Dusseldorf with both teams having played 25 matches.
Fifteen defeats from 25 games is an indication of the team's struggles this term, but they have only lost one of their last five in the Bundesliga, beating Paderborn and drawing with Dusseldorf in their last two.
Mainz have also recorded some standout results on their travels in the league this season, putting five past both Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen in the latter stages of 2019, in addition to recording a 3-1 victory at Hertha on February 8.
Achim Beierlorzer's side have now been present in the top flight of German football since 2009, but they could find themselves in a difficult spot if they do not hit the ground running in the coming weeks.
Koln Bundesliga form: WLWWWL
Mainz Bundesliga form: LWDLWD
Team News
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Rafael Czichos, Niklas Hauptmann and Ismail Jakobs are all doubtful for Koln, but Jhon Cordoba, who has scored 10 Bundesliga goals this season, is available after a slight concern and should continue at the top end of the field.
Sebastian Bornauw should also start, having recovered from a muscular injury, while former Queens Park Rangers captain Toni Leistner should keep his spot in defence.
Mark Uth was on the scoresheet in the 2-1 defeat at Gladbach last time out, and the 28-year-old should again be handed a spot in the XI alongside Dominick Drexler.
As for Mainz, Jean-Philippe Mateta will miss out through suspension, having picked up a red card in the 1-1 draw with Dusseldorf last time out, opening the door for Adam Szalai to start at centre-forward.
Robin Zentner is out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury, meanwhile, meaning that Florian Muller is expected to feature between the sticks.
Danny Latza and Stefan Bell could be in contention following back and ankle injuries, and it would not be a surprise to see the former handed a spot in the starting XI.
Koln possible starting lineup:
Horn; Ehizibue, Leistner, Bornauw, Katterbach; Hector, Skhiri; Kainz, Uth, Drexler; Cordoba
Mainz possible starting lineup:
Muller; Niakhate, Bruma, Juste; Baku, Latza, Martins, Oztunali, Martin; Quaison; Szalai
We say: Koln 2-0 Mainz
Koln have been very impressive on home soil since the latter stages of 2019, while they were in strong form before the action was called to a halt in March. Mainz are certainly capable of making it a difficult afternoon for the hosts, but we expect Gisdol's team to pick up all three points in relatively routine fashion.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 49.54%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
