Ecuadorian side LDU Quito host Chilean outfit Union La Calera in their final group-stage encounter of the Copa Libertadores on Friday.
Both sides have already been eliminated from the competition, but still have the chance to progress into the Copa Sudamericana, with the hosts currently three points clear of the visitors in third place.
Match preview
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LDU Quito's frustrating 2021 campaign was dealt another blow last week, as a 2-2 draw away at Flamengo has seen them eliminated from the group stage of the Copa Libertadores.
An 88th-minute equaliser from Gustavo Henrique rescued a point for the Brazilians, which leaves Quito five points behind Velez Sarsfield heading into the final game in Group G.
Los Albos have also struggled domestically so far this season, winning only four of their 13 matches in the Ecuadorian Serie A.
Last year's champions are now at risk of failing to qualify for South American football next season, as they currently sit in seventh place and 10 points behind league leaders Emelec.
Quito are currently enduring a six-game winless run in all competitions and manager Pablo Repetto will be hoping his side can turn their fortunes around quickly and return to winning ways.
They will, however, only need a point to remain in third place and qualify for the Copa Sudamericana, a competition that they last won in 2009.
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Union La Calera's first ever campaign in the Copa Libertadores will end in elimination from the competition and they are now at risk of finishing bottom of Group G, after a 2-1 loss away at Velez Sarsfield last week.
A frantic opening five minutes saw Jeisson Vargas cancel out Cristian Tarragona's earlier strike. The game then settled down until the 39th minute when Thiago Almada tapped in from close range to put Velez back in front.
The hosts were able to hold on in the second half for all three points, leaving La Calera as one of only four sides in the competition who have yet to win during the group stages.
There is still an outside chance for Luca Marcogiuseppe's side to qualify for the Copa Sudamericana, but they will need to beat Quito by a three-goal margin, which would see them leapfrog Friday's opponents into third place on goal difference.
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Team News
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LDU Quito will still be without Lucas Piovi due to suspension, after the midfielder was shown a straight red card against Velez two weeks ago.
Left-back Luis Ayala will be hoping he can return to the first XI ahead of Christian Cruz, who has started the last two matches, while attacking midfielder Jhojan Julio is set to start once again in behind striker Luis Amarilla.
As for Union La Calera, midfielder Matias Fernandez could be recalled to the starting lineup at the expense of either Matias Cavalleri or Ariel Martinez, with the latter the most likely to drop out.
With the visitors needing to win by a three-goal margin, Marcogiuseppe may decide to start with three forwards, which could see Octavio Rivero join Vargas and Sebastian Saez up front.
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Quinteros, Guerra, Ordonez, Cruz; Villarruel, Alcivar; Zunino, Julio, Arce; Amarilla
Union La Calera possible starting lineup:
Arias; Ramirez, Vilches, Garcia, Wiemberg; Reyes, Castellani, Fernandez; Saez, Vargas, Rivero
We say: LDU Quito 2-2 Union La Calera
Both sides head into Friday's fixture after failing to win any of their last four games in all competitions, conceding a combined 17 goals between them in the process.
Goals are to be expected at the Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria, but with little to separate the two teams, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 58.07%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Union La Calera had a probability of 19.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Union La Calera win it was 0-1 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.
