We said: Cheltenham Town 2-1 Barrow
Cheltenham's strong home form gives them the edge, but Barrow's recent momentum under Andy Whing makes this a tight contest - however, the visitors' poor away record remains a concern, and Cheltenham will likely capitalise to extend their impressive Whaddon Road streak.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Barrow had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.79%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Barrow win was 0-1 (11.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cheltenham Town would win this match.