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West Ham logo
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 9, 2022 at 2pm UK
London Stadium
Leeds logo

West Ham
2 - 0
Leeds

Lanzini (34'), Bowen (90+3')
Lanzini (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Drameh (78')

Preview: West Ham United vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between West Ham United and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

West Ham United welcome Leeds United to the London Stadium on Sunday for one of only three all-Premier League ties in the FA Cup third round.

Both sides come into the match off the back of year-opening Premier League wins, and will hope to start 2022 in better form than they finished 2021.


Match preview

West Ham United manager David Moyes on December 28, 2021© Reuters

Eleven places and 15 points separate these two teams in the Premier League table, with one pushing for Champions League football and the other more concerned about relegation, yet they enter this match in very similar form.

West Ham have won two and lost four of their last seven games, while Leeds have won two and lost four of their last nine, and both sides come into the game off the back of a very welcome win to open up 2022.

The Hammers looked to have all three points wrapped up at Crystal Palace when they went into half time 3-0 ahead on New Year's Day, but they were forced to withstand a late fightback to hold on to a 3-2 victory.

That result leaves West Ham just a point adrift of the top four, yet it was also the first time they had recorded back-to-back wins since October, while they had only won one of their previous nine outings before those two triumphs.

Both of those victories came away from home too, and they are still without a win in front of their own fans since beating Chelsea on December 4, losing both of their games at the London Stadium since then.

West Ham United's Nikola Vlasic celebrates scoring their fourth goal with Jarrod Bowen on December 28, 2021© Reuters

David Moyes's men have not lost three successive home games across all competitions since December 2019, but have a relatively kind run coming up in front of their own fans with Leeds visiting twice in the space of a week, either side of a game against rock-bottom Norwich City.

By far the priority for the Irons will be those upcoming Premier League games, with the Norwich one being rearranged for Wednesday, but a cup run will also be appealing to a club without a major trophy since last lifting this one in 1980.

The biggest obstacle to ending that drought has been West Ham's dire record against fellow Premier League clubs in this competition, with Sunday's hosts winning just one of their last 19 such FA Cup games.

Leeds' record is not much better, though; they have progressed from only two of their last 15 FA Cup games against top-flight opposition, although in their defence they did spent a lot of that time outside the Premier League themselves.

Even so, the fact that Leeds have not made it past the third round of this competition since 2016-17 will be something Marcelo Bielsa is looking to rectify this season, as is the fact that they have not made it past round five since 2002-03.

Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa pictured on December 14, 2021© Reuters

Indeed, you have to go back to January 2017, exactly five years ago, for Leeds' last FA Cup win of any kind, with their current losing streak of five games the longest they have suffered since seven on the bounce from 1955 to 1961.

Victory over West Ham would be welcomed for a number of reasons, then, and it could also further boost their confidence following their much-needed 3-1 win over Burnley last Sunday.

That triumph at Elland Road ended a three-game losing streak which had seen Leeds ship 14 goals, and they are now going in search of back-to-back wins for the first time all season.

Whereas West Ham have a midweek game, for Leeds this will be the first of two successive matches away to the Hammers as they visit again in the Premier League next Saturday, so breaking their three-game losing streak in this fixture would also provide a timely boost.

However, Bielsa's men have not won away from home since October, most recently suffering their joint-heaviest league defeat in the 7-0 drubbing at Manchester City, and excluding penalties have won only one of their 11 outings on the road in all competitions this season.

West Ham United form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

Leeds United form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

West Ham United's Mark Noble celebrates scoring their third goal with Said Benrahma and Jarrod Bowen on December 28, 2021© Reuters

West Ham are expected to make some changes for this tie, with one eye on Wednesday's rearranged game against Norwich, which could include a return to the starting lineup for captain Mark Noble.

Michail Antonio will be pushing for a start fresh from signing a contract extension at the club, but his injury record could see Moyes err on the side of caution for cup games.

The hosts will be without Said Benrahma, who has joined up with Algeria at the Africa Cup of Nations, while centre-back duo Kurt Zouma and Angelo Ogbonna remain sidelined.

Pablo Fornals and Aaron Cresswell are expected to miss out too, but there could be starting opportunities for fringe players such Alphonse Areola, Ryan Fredericks and Andriy Yarmolenko.

Leeds' troubles this season must be mentioned in the same breath as their injury list, which shows little sign of improving.

Kalvin Phillips and Liam Cooper are expected to be out until March, while Rodrigo Moreno, Pascal Struijk, Charlie Cresswell and Jamie Shackleton are also long-term absentees.

Patrick Bamford is nearing a return from his latest injury, although he may not be risked from the start in this cup game given his struggles so far this season.

Tyler Roberts and Joe Gelhardt have joined the injury list recently too, leaving Bielsa without as many as 10 first-team players for this match.

Diego Llorente is available for this game, although he will miss next weekend's trip back to the London Stadium due to suspension, having picked up five yellow cards in the Premier League.

West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Areola; Fredericks, Dawson, Diop, Johnson; Kral, Noble; Yarmolenko, Vlasic, Masuaku; Bowen

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Drameh, Ayling, Llorente, Firpo; Forshaw, Dallas; Summerville, Klich, James; Greenwood


SM words green background

We say: West Ham United 3-2 Leeds United

The first FA Cup meeting between these two sides since 1930 is all set up to be a cracker, with each of their last five games seeing a combined total of 45 goals fly in.

We fancy that trend to continue this weekend, possibly with the bonus of an extra 30 minutes on top, but ultimately expect West Ham to make it through to the fourth round given Leeds' significant injury troubles.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 1-2 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that West Ham United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: West Ham vs Leeds

West Ham United
70.6%
Draw
15.1%
Leeds United
14.3%
119
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Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa on October 23, 2021
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