FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 9, 2022 at 2pm UK

London Stadium

West Ham
2 - 0
Leeds

Lanzini (34'), Bowen (90+3')
Lanzini (72')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Drameh (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's FA Cup clash between West Ham United and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: West Ham United 3-2 Leeds United

The first FA Cup meeting between these two sides since 1930 is all set up to be a cracker, with each of their last five games seeing a combined total of 45 goals fly in. We fancy that trend to continue this weekend, possibly with the bonus of an extra 30 minutes on top, but ultimately expect West Ham to make it through to the fourth round given Leeds' significant injury troubles. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 1-2 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that West Ham United would win this match.

Result
West Ham United	Draw	Leeds United
46.37%	23.72%	29.91%

Both teams to score 60.03%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.28%

41.72%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.88%

64.12%

West Ham United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.77%

18.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.75%

49.25%

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.41%

26.59%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.19%

61.81%

Score Analysis

West Ham United 46.37%

Leeds United 29.91%

Draw 23.71%

West Ham United	Draw	Leeds United
2-1 @ 9.3% 1-0 @ 8.25% 2-0 @ 7.02% 3-1 @ 5.28% 3-0 @ 3.99% 3-2 @ 3.5% 4-1 @ 2.25% 4-0 @ 1.7% 4-2 @ 1.49% Other @ 3.6% Total : 46.37%	1-1 @ 10.92% 2-2 @ 6.16% 0-0 @ 4.85% 3-3 @ 1.54% Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.71%	1-2 @ 7.24% 0-1 @ 6.42% 0-2 @ 4.25% 1-3 @ 3.2% 2-3 @ 2.72% 0-3 @ 1.88% 1-4 @ 1.06% 2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.25% Total : 29.91%