Nottingham Forest and Leicester City square off in an all-East Midlands showdown in the FA Cup fourth round on Sunday afternoon.
At a time when Forest are challenging for the Championship playoffs, Leicester find themselves down in 10th position in the Premier League standings.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having narrowly missed out on the Champions League during the past two seasons, Leicester had been expected to be in and around a similar position this time around.
However, the Foxes have frequently under-performed this campaign, their capitulation against Tottenham Hotspur and being held by Brighton & Hove Albion the story of their season.
Despite their games in hand, Leicester are realistically out of the race for the top four now that they are 11 points adrift of that target, and Brendan Rodgers will be more focused on trying to find solutions in the short term.
As well as winning just three of their last 10 fixtures in all competitions, Leicester have conceded 21 goals, and the recent return of James Justin from a long-term injury is the main positive to take from the opening five weeks of the year.
Rodgers witnessed his side record a 4-1 triumph over Watford in the third round, setting up a tie with rivals Forest who stunned Arsenal at the City Ground.
© Reuters
While the game was not necessarily easy on the eye, Lewis Grabban's late goal earned Forest a deserved victory, strengthening the feel-good factor under Steve Cooper.
Although Forest succumbed to a 2-1 defeat at Cardiff City last weekend, Cooper will be more than satisfied with seven victories coming from their last 10 games in all competitions.
Goals had been a problem earlier in the campaign but Forest have failed to net in just two matches during that period, helped by the form of Grabban and Keinan Davis.
At a time when Grabban now has 12 Championship strikes for the campaign, Aston Villa loanee Davis has scored in his most recent two appearances.
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
With Grabban likely to be sidelined for at least a month, Davis should be restored to the attack ahead of new arrival Sam Surridge.
While Cooper is expected to name a strong team, he could still make a couple of changes with Tobias Figueiredo and Cafu options in defence and midfield respectively.
Jonathan Panzo may only be named on the substitutes' bench given his lack of game time for Dijon during the first half of the campaign.
Ahead of a busy period, Rodgers will likely try to strike a balance when it comes to naming his Leicester starting lineup.
Boubakary Soumare may come in for Youri Tielemans ahead of an important double-header next week, while Jannik Vestergaard, Marc Albrighton and Ayoze Perez will also be considered for recalls.
Second-choice goalkeeper Danny Ward could get the nod between the sticks ahead of Kasper Schmeichel, but Jamie Vardy remains sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Samba; Spence, Figueiredo, McKenna, Lowe; Cafu, Colback; Johnson, Garner, Zinckernagel; Davis
Leicester City possible starting lineup:
Ward; Justin, Amartey, Vestergaard, Thomas; Soumare, Dewsbury-Hall; Albrighton, Maddison, Barnes; Perez
We say: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Leicester City
Both clubs will be eager to claim local bragging rights, leading us to predict a high-octane showdown between two teams who have ambitions to improve during the second half of the campaign. Forest should more than match their higher-league neighbours, but we feel that Leicester could edge this contest by the odd goal in three.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 32.03% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.01%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
