Liga MX | Gameweek 5
Feb 3, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca4 - 1Club Leon
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Club Leon.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 50.18%. A win for Club Leon had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Club Leon win was 1-2 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Club Leon |
50.18% ( 0.3) | 22.88% ( -0.07) | 26.94% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 60.74% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.21% ( 0.14) | 39.79% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.86% ( 0.15) | 62.14% ( -0.14) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.95% ( 0.16) | 16.05% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.58% ( 0.29) | 45.42% ( -0.28) |
| Club Leon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.36% ( -0.09) | 27.64% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.81% ( -0.11) | 63.18% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
Toluca 50.18%
Club Leon 26.94%
Draw 22.87%
| Toluca | Draw | Club Leon |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.66% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.07% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.59% Total : 50.18% | 1-1 @ 10.43% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.6% ( 0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.87% | 1-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.86% Total : 26.94% |
