Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 38.44%. A win for Pau had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.