Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Le Havre had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Le Havre win was 0-1 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.