MX23RW : Wednesday, April 30 22:23:11| >> :600:3121011:3121011:
Belgium national football team
Nations League | Playoffs A/B | 2nd Leg
Mar 23, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion
Ukraine national football team

Belgium
3 - 0
Ukraine

De Cuyper (70'), Lukaku (75', 86')
Raskin (5'), Vanaken (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Zabarnyi (12'), Zinchenko (29'), Hutsuliak (45+2'), Vanat (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League playoff between Belgium and Ukraine, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Ukraine 3-1 Belgium
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Current League A2 Standings P GD PTS
1France6613
2Italy6513
3Belgium6-34
4Israel6-84
All competitions
Last Game: Ukraine 3-1 Belgium
Thursday, March 20 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Belgium 2-1 Ukraine (Ukraine win 4-3 on aggregate)

An ageing and disjointed Belgium squad may secure victory on the night, but Ukraine will bravely resist a two-goal loss and win the tie overall. The visitors have found some form in recent months, so they can now slay the Red Devils and celebrate promotion back to League A. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 56.03%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Ukraine had a probability of 20.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a Ukraine win it was 0-1 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
BelgiumDrawUkraine
56.03% (-0.171 -0.17) 23.02% (0.051000000000002 0.05) 20.94% (0.117 0.12)
Both teams to score 53.09% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.38% (-0.07 -0.07)46.62% (0.067 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.11% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)68.89% (0.063000000000002 0.06)
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.54% (-0.084999999999994 -0.08)16.46% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.85% (-0.151 -0.15)46.15% (0.149 0.15)
Ukraine Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.55% (0.077999999999996 0.08)36.45% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.76% (0.080000000000002 0.08)73.23% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Belgium 56.03%
    Ukraine 20.94%
    Draw 23.02%
BelgiumDrawUkraine
1-0 @ 10.82%
2-1 @ 9.86% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.77% (-0.026999999999999 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.93% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 5.87% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.99% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 2.67% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.65% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.35% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
5-1 @ 0.97% (-0.009 -0.01)
5-0 @ 0.96% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 56.03%
1-1 @ 10.92% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 6% (0.017 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.97% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.01% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 23.02%
0-1 @ 6.05% (0.03 0.03)
1-2 @ 5.51% (0.023999999999999 0.02)
0-2 @ 3.06% (0.023 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.86% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.67% (0.006 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.03% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 20.94%

How you voted: Belgium vs Ukraine

Belgium
74.5%
Draw
6.1%
Ukraine
19.4%
98
Head to Head
Mar 20, 2025 7.45pm
Playoffs A/B 1st Leg
Ukraine
3-1
Belgium
Hutsuliak (66'), Vanat (73'), Zabarnyi (78')
Lukaku (40')
Tielemans (68')
Jun 26, 2024 5pm
Group Stage
Ukraine
0-0
Belgium
Dovbyk (69')
Faes (43')
rhs 2.0
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