One of the marquee matchups in the round of 16 at the Miami Open will see Naomi Osaka take on Jasmine Paolini for the first time on Monday.
Osaka claimed a hard-fought three-set victory over Hailey Baptiste this past weekend, 7-6 (8-6) 3-6 6-4, while the two-time Grand Slam finalist from a year ago won in a walkover versus Ons Jabeur (4-3).
Match preview
© Imago
In her previous match at this tournament, Naomi Osaka had to work hard to fend off a pesky Baptiste to advance into the fourth round of the Miami Open for a second successive occasion.
The former two-time Australian Open champion had a strong service game in her previous outing, hitting nine aces in the match, while winning 69% of her first serves to advance.
Osaka, who has also won two US Open singles crowns, had not made it into the last 16 of the Miami Open since 2021, when she ousted Serbian Nina Stojanovic at this stage of the event.
The Japanese-born player has not reached the last 16 of a singles event on the WTA tour since the ASB Classic when she was forced to retire in the final against Clara Tauson.
So far this year she has been able to win 73.4% of her first serves, while also claiming victory in 84.3% of her service games, to go along with 56 aces.
Osaka, who has always been aggressive on her forehand throughout her career, has won 41.8% of her break points in 2025 and 41.7% of her return points.
© Imago
Paolini caught a break in her opening match at this tournament as an injury sent the Italian into the fourth round of the Miami Open for a second consecutive year.
That means the 29-year-old can advance into the last 16 of this event for the first time, losing out in the round of 32 last year versus Emma Navarro in three sets (2-6 6-3 0-6).
Since exiting the Australian Open singles event in the round of 32 against Elina Svitolina in three sets (6-2 4-6 0-6), Paolini has made it into the last 16 in her previous three singles tournaments, defeating Romania's Jaqueline Cristian in three sets (6-4 3-6 6-4) at this stage of the Indian Wells Open.
So far this year, Paolini has won 62.1% of her first serves but continues to make unforced errors, with 25 double faults and only 22 aces.
Having won just 56.7% of her service points in 2025, it should be no surprise that she has yet to win a singles event on tour this year.
Her solid groundstrokes and heavy topspin on that forehand have enabled her to win 45% of her return points in 2025, while she has converted a respectable 48.5% of her return points.
Tournament so far
Naomi Osaka:
First round: vs. Yuliia Starodubtseva 3-6 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-4
Third round: Hailey Baptiste 7-6 (8-6) 3-6 6-4
Jasmine Paolini:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Rebecca Sramkova 6-4 6-4
Third round: vs. Ons Jabeur 4-3 walkover
We say: Paolini to win in three sets
Osaka has the experience of stepping up in big games, but we believe the Italian will benefit from having plenty of time to rest and use that advantage by forcing her opponent to expand a lot of energy around the court.
Joel Lefevre
