Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 0-1 (10.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
