Luton Town play host to Harrogate Town in the FA Cup third round on Sunday afternoon looking to extend their unbeaten run to three matches.
While the Hatters sit in 16th position in the Championship, Harrogate occupy 11th place in League Two after suffering three successive fourth-tier defeats.
Match preview
© Reuters
Although Luton head into this contest having avoided defeat in their last two outings, that does not tell the whole story with their most recent fixture being played on December 11.
As a result of coronavirus cases in their own squad and the opposition's, the Hatters will have gone four weeks without a match when they take to the pitch at Kenilworth Road on Sunday.
Nevertheless, the powers-that-be will insist that it has been a productive period off the pitch with the announcement that manager Nathan Jones has signed a new contract, keeping him at the club until 2027.
All things considered, it is a remarkable show of faith in the Welshman, who is in his second stint at the club and has guided Luton to just two wins in eight fixtures.
However, Luton have found stability in the Championship under Jones, and that is imperative if they are to continue to solidify their spot in the second tier over the coming years.
Luton and Harrogate have never squared off in a competitive fixture, a consequence of Harrogate being in just their second campaign in the EFL.
The Yorkshire outfit have found stability of their own since moving into the fourth tier, however, and they still sit in the top half of the table despite not recording a league win since November 23.
Although they have lost ground in the promotion race, Simon Weaver's team have enjoyed better fortunes in cup competitions, earning their spot in the last 64 of the FA Cup with triumphs over Wrexham and Portsmouth respectively.
Harrogate have also managed to reach the last 16 of the EFL Trophy with success against Tranmere Rovers and Carlisle United either side of Christmas and New Year.
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Given the circumstances, it would come as a surprise if Jones named anything other than a strong starting lineup for this fixture.
the team should resemble the one which performed well during the 1-1 draw versus Fulham, aside from Admiral Muskwe who is away with Zimbabwe at the Africa Cup of Nations.
However, Tom Lockyer, Luke Berry and Harry Cornick are all in line to return after varying periods on the sidelines.
Having both made their debuts against Carlisle in midweek, Huddersfield Town loanees Josh Austerfield and Brahima Diarra could retain their places in the Harrogate midfield.
Weaver may see no reason to make any unenforced changes with the squad having recently been depleted due to coronavirus cases and injuries.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Shea; Burke, Naismith, Bradley; Bree, Mpanzu, Campbell, Bell; Clark, Adebayo, Cornick
Harrogate Town possible starting lineup:
Oxley; Sheron, McArdle, Hall, Page; Diarra, Falkingham, Austerfield; Muldoon, Armstrong, Diamond
We say: Luton Town 2-0 Harrogate Town
Despite morale being boosted with their EFL Trophy win earlier this week, this represents a significant step-up for Harrogate. The Hatters should have enough quality to claim a relatively comfortable victory, regardless of the team that Jones selects on Sunday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 39.42%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 35.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 2-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
