A-League leaders Melbourne City will be looking to back up their seven-goal hammering of Melbourne Victory in the derby last time out when they face Macarthur at the Campbelltown Stadium on Saturday.
Melbourne City cruised to a comfortable 3-0 win back in December's reverse fixture, but victory for Macarthur this weekend would see them close the gap on the league leaders to just one point.
Match preview
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Macarthur failed to end their winless run in the A-League last time out as they were held to a 2-2 draw by Newcastle Jets.
Charles M'Mombwa and Loic Puyo were on target to help the Bulls come from behind to secure a 2-1 lead going into the break, but Steven Ugarkovic restored parity shortly before the hour mark.
That was Macarthur's first point in three games as they went into the game off the back of successive defeats against Brisbane Roar and Adelaide United.
Their dip in form has seen Macarthur drop to fifth in the A-League table, two points ahead of Western Sydney Wanderers in the final playoff spot.
On the other hand, Melbourne City continued their hunt for a first A-League title with a resounding 7-0 win over local rivals Melbourne Victory last time out.
In a game where Grant Brebner's side were reduced to 10 men, Australian-born striker Jamie Maclaren turned in a performance of the highest quality as he scored five goals in the game.
With 31 points from 16 games, Patrick Kisnorbo's men remain at the top of the table, one point ahead of Central Coast Mariners.
Melbourne City have two games in hand over some of their A-League rivals and will be confident of pulling clear at the top of the table in the coming weeks.
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Team News
Macarthur will be without the services of 31-year-old defender Aleksandar Jovanovic, who is out with a calf injury.
He is joined on the treatment table by right-back Ivan Franjic, who is suffering from a similar calf problem.
Despite the draw, Macarthur were impressive last time out, and Ante Milicic could opt to stick with the same starting XI.
Nathaniel Atkinson has been ruled out for the rest of the season after picking up a hamstring injury in the 3-2 win over Wellington Phoenix and other than that, Melbourne City have no injury concerns.
Jamie Maclaren just cannot stop scoring currently and has hit 19 goals in 16 outings this season.
The ever-present striker has played every single minute for the visitors this season and will once again spearhead their attack on Saturday.
Macarthur possible starting lineup:
Federici; Golec, Milligan, Susnjar; Li Rose, Benat, Genreau, Oar; La Rose, Derbyshire, Hollman
Melbourne City possible starting lineup:
Acton; Traore, Ryan, Ansell, Roux; Barnett, Butterfield; Brimmer, Kruse, McManaman; Folami
We say: Macarthur 1-3 Melbourne City
Macarthur have been decent on home turf this season, picking up three wins and three draws from nine games. However, considering the fact that the visitors are scoring freely at the moment, we are backing them to outscore the hosts and claim all three points in this one.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 47%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
