Minnesota United are continuing their quest to break into the top seven in the Western Conference, currently sitting just two points behind Los Angeles FC with a game in hand on their playoff rivals.
Sunday's visitors to the Allianz Field, Los Angeles Galaxy, are seven points clear of Minnesota, but recent form has prevented Greg Vanney's side from keeping up with league leaders Sporting Kansas City.
Match preview
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Minnesota United have had two challenging fixtures prior to this clash with LA Galaxy, having had to travel to the Western Conference's top two teams, Seattle Sounders and Sporting KC.
Adrian Heath's side lost 1-0 to the Sounders, but last time out, their defence was broken four times by Sporting KC, who dominated the game with the away side not managing a single shot on target.
That game was settled before half time, as Minnesota went into the break 3-0 down, and Cameron Duke scored a fourth for the home side to seal a comfortable win for the table toppers.
Thursday's result was the first time Minnesota have conceded four goals in one game since the opening day of this season and it was the seventh time this year that the team have failed to score.
Heath's team have scored 24 goals in their 23 MLS matches this campaign, whereas the teams in the playoff positions have all scored more than 30 times, but United's defence is stronger than the four teams above them, suggesting that they will need to rely on clean sheets to secure a top-seven finish.
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LA Galaxy enter this fixture having not recorded a victory since the middle of August, with their last win coming against Sunday's hosts, courtesy of Kevin Cabral's 43rd-minute strike, in a game that was settled by that single goal.
That last meeting between these two sides was dominated by Minnesota, who recorded six shots on target, but Vanney's team secured the three points with the only shot on target that they managed on the day.
Galaxy have drawn their last three matches, with their most recent point coming in a 1-1 draw with 12th-placed Houston Dynamo, as Javier Hernandez equalised in the second half with his first goal since the end of June after a period on the sidelines due to injury.
If LA Galaxy had managed to pick up four more points from their last two games, which both ended in 1-1 draws, then they would only be four points behind the league leaders, and it is these recent draws that have slowed down Galaxy's chase for the Western Conference title.
Vanney's side have conceded 22 goals away from home this season, but Minnesota are the lowest scorers at home which could give LA Galaxy the chance to prevent that away stat from getting any worse.
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Team News
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One of the only positives to come out of the 4-0 defeat to Sporting KC for Minnesota was the return of top goalscorer Robin Lod, who had been out of action for over a month due to injury, and he is likely to make his return to the starting lineup this weekend.
There are other attacking concerns for Heath, though, with Emanuel Reynoso, Juan Agudelo, Justin McMaster and Niko Hansen all unavailable for this clash with Galaxy as they continue their recoveries from injury.
With Lod expected to start on Sunday, Fanendo Adi is likely to drop down to the bench and Adrien Hunou, who has played as the lone striker, could play deeper in an attacking midfield role.
Hernandez is certain to lead the line for the visitors on Sunday, with Cabral and Samuel Grandsir alongside him providing some width for LA Galaxy.
Jonathan Klinsmann made his second start of the season last time out against Houston, and the goalkeeper could retain his place between the posts ahead of Jonathan Bond, especially after a strong performance during their last meeting with Minnesota.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Gasper, Dibassy, Boxall, Metanire; Trapp, Alonso; Fragapane, Hunuo, Finlay; Lod
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Klinsmann; Hamalainen, Steres, Coulibaly, Araujo; Vazquez, Ravelson, Dos Santos; Grandsir, Hernandez, Cabral
We say: Minnesota United 1-2 Los Angeles Galaxy
Galaxy only needed to find one more goal in their last three games to turn a draw into three points, and with Hernandez back on the scoresheet last time out, his form may be what the team have been missing, but that can be resolved this weekend.
Minnesota will be keen to end their losing run before the playoff positions run away from them, but the 4-0 defeat last time out may have damaged some confidence, while LA Galaxy will know that they are closing in on turning those draws into victories.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 59.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 18.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Los Angeles Galaxy win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
