Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 43.56%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 31.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.