Major League Soccer

Dec 11, 2021 at 8pm UK

Providence Park

Portland
1 - 1
NY City

Mora (90+4')
van Rankin (59'), Chara (90')

FT
(aet)

Castellanos (41')
Rodriguez (80'), Johnson (88'), Medina (90+1')

NY City win 4-2 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Portland Timbers and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We say: Portland Timbers 2-1 New York City FC

This is a tough match to call, as each side has found another gear in the playoffs, and they both possess plenty of quality in the final third, but the Timbers get a slight edge, having been to this point before, so they are unlikely to be overwhelmed by the moment, plus they will have the home crowd behind them. Portland are also looking a little sharper in all facets of the game, and their depth and quick counter-attacking play should be enough to help them claim their second MLS title. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 40.98%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 34.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%).

Result
Portland Timbers	Draw	New York City FC
40.98%	24.68%	34.35%

Both teams to score 58.55%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.52%

44.49%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.15%

66.86%

Portland Timbers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.28%

21.72%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.11%

54.89%

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.8%

25.21%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.06%

59.94%

Score Analysis

Portland Timbers 40.98%

New York City FC 34.35%

Draw 24.68%

Portland Timbers	Draw	New York City FC
2-1 @ 8.8% 1-0 @ 8.36% 2-0 @ 6.38% 3-1 @ 4.48% 3-0 @ 3.25% 3-2 @ 3.08% 4-1 @ 1.71% 4-0 @ 1.24% 4-2 @ 1.18% Other @ 2.51% Total : 40.98%	1-1 @ 11.52% 2-2 @ 6.06% 0-0 @ 5.48% 3-3 @ 1.42% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.68%	1-2 @ 7.94% 0-1 @ 7.55% 0-2 @ 5.2% 1-3 @ 3.65% 2-3 @ 2.78% 0-3 @ 2.39% 1-4 @ 1.26% 2-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.63% Total : 34.35%