Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 86.22%. A draw had a probability of 9.2% and a win for Oxford City had a probability of 4.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 4-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.25%), while for a Oxford City win it was 1-2 (1.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Oxford City |
86.22% ( 0.27) | 9.24% ( -0.13) | 4.55% ( -0.15) |
Both teams to score 48.13% ( -0.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
75.95% ( -0.14) | 24.05% ( 0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
56.34% ( -0.18) | 43.66% ( 0.18) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
96.28% ( 0.01) | 3.72% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
84.03% ( 0.06) | 15.97% ( -0.06) |
Oxford City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.99% ( -0.7) | 50.01% ( 0.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.34% ( -0.49) | 84.66% ( 0.48) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Oxford City |
3-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 6.3% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0.07) 6-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.18% ( -0.06) 7-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.03) 5-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.03) 7-1 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 4.32% Total : 86.2% | 1-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.71% Total : 9.24% | 1-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.79% Total : 4.55% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 48 |
2 | Barnet | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 48 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 46 |
4 | Gateshead | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 44 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 43 |
6 | Rochdale | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 36 |
7 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 35 |
8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 35 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 34 |
11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 33 |
12 | Eastleigh | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 32 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 32 |
14 | Tamworth | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 29 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 |
17 | Woking | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 23 |
19 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 23 |
20 | Fylde | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |
21 | Braintree TownBraintree | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 20 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 20 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 23 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 54 | -37 | 9 |
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