In the final round of fixtures in the group stage, Netherlands Women and China PR Women do battle on Tuesday in Tokyo 2020 Olympics Women's Football action.
Netherlands Women currently sit at the top of the group with four points from their two games, while their opponents occupy third spot and could be battling for one of the spots in the knockout stage handed to the best third-placed sides.
Match preview
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Netherlands Women started their Olympics football campaign in style, sending a message out to the other sides in the competition as they thrashed Zambia Women 10-3.
A Vivianne Miedema hat-trick alongside a Lieke Martens brace and a Shanice van de Sanden goal meant they led 6-1 at the break, and Miedema would hit her fourth of the game on the hour mark before Jill Roord, Lineth Beerensteyn and Victoria Pelova all found the net to seal an eye-catching victory.
They would then face a much tougher test last time out, facing off against a Brazil side who were also expected to cruise through the group stage.
A Vivianne Miedema brace saw Netherlands Women take the lead on two separate occasions, but a quick pair of goals from Marta and Ludmila meant Brazil Women led 3-2 before Dominique Janssen drew Sarina Wiegman's side level in the final 10 minutes to see the game finish 3-3.
That means they now sit level on points with the Brazilian side and lead the group thanks to their superior goal difference, while their three-point lead over China PR Women alongside a far stronger goal difference means they are all but through to the knockout stage, with a point on Tuesday confirming their progression.
While their opponents may not have enough to break into the top two on the final day, they still have plenty to play for as they battle for a spot as one of the two best third-placed sides.
China PR Women faced a difficult task on the opening day as they took on Brazil Women, and a Marta brace and goals from Debinha, Andressa and Beatriz fired their opponents to a dominant 5-0 win.
They then took on Zambia Women in an important game between two sides who were both thrashed in the opening round of fixtures, with the result potentially crucial in deciding who got to compete as the third-placed side.
In a dramatic encounter, Racheal Kundananji cancelled out Wang Shuang's early opener before Shuang quickly netted her second and third goals of the game inside the first 25 minutes to give China PR Women a two-goal lead.
The game would then be flipped on its head once again as Barbra Banda netted a hat-trick of her own to put Zambia Women 4-3 up, and the scoreline would remain that way until Shuang hit her fourth goal of the match in the 84th minute from the penalty spot to earn a valuable point for Jia Xiuquan's side.
While they sit three points behind both Tuesday's opponents and Brazil Women with a far inferior goal difference, China PR Women still have a chance of qualifying, with two third-placed sides qualifying out of the three groups.
As a result, they will be desperate to record a positive result to add to their points tally and boost their chances of reaching the final eight.
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Team News
Vivianne Miedema will undoubtedly lead the line for Netherlands Women with confidence, having hit six goals in the first two games of the tournament.
She should again be supported by Lieke Martins, who hit a brace in the opening game.
Their squad took a huge hit in the run-up to the tournament as experienced midfielder Sherida Spitse, who has featured 188 times for the national side, was ruled out through injury, with Joelle Smits joining the squad as a late replacement.
In their search for a surprise victory, China PR Women will rely heavily on Wang Shuang, who hit all four goals in their draw with Zambia Women last time out.
Wang Yan was brought off through injury in the first half of the opening game, but she was fit to make the bench against Zambia Women and should be available for selection on Tuesday.
However, they will be without midfielder Li Qingtong, who was shown a red card in the dying minutes of the 4-4 draw on Saturday.
Netherlands Women possible starting lineup:
Van Veenendaal; Van Dongen, Nouwen, Van der Gragt, Janssen; Roord, Van De Donk, Groenen; Van De Sanden, Miedema, Martens
China PR Women possible starting lineup:
Shimeng; Mengwen, Xiaoxue, Guiping; Shuang, Zhang, Lina, Siwen, Wurigumula; Yang, Shanshan
We say: Netherlands Women 5-2 China PR Women
While Netherlands Women look formidable going forward, they have conceded six goals in just two games, and China PR Women will certainly be able to cause problems for a struggling back line.
Nonetheless, their impressive attack should have more than enough to cruise past the Chinese national side and secure the first-placed finish with another high-scoring win.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands Women win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for China PR Women had a probability of 21.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a China PR Women win it was 0-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 8-2 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Netherlands Women would win this match.
