Norwich City manager Dean Smith prepares for a swift reunion with his former club when Aston Villa make the journey to Carrow Road for Tuesday's Premier League fixture.
The Canaries went down 1-0 to Manchester United at the weekend, while Steven Gerrard's men lost to Liverpool by the same scoreline.
Match preview
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A plethora of Norwich supporters just had to capture the iconic Cristiano Ronaldo celebration on Saturday night, as the five-time Ballon d'Or winner scored the only goal of the contest at Carrow Road to propel Ralf Rangnick's side to another narrow success.
On a day where the Canaries were so often thwarted by David de Gea, Ronaldo's 75th-minute spot kick was all that could separate the two sides, as Dean Smith's men slumped to a fourth game without a win in the top flight.
The former Villa boss oversaw an immediate upturn in fortunes following his appointment, but back-to-back defeats have seen Norwich plummet to the bottom of the rankings once again, with just 10 points to their name from a possible 48.
The Canaries' misfiring attack have only managed to find the back of the net once in their last four Premier League games, and they are the only side in the top flight yet to hit double figures in terms of goals, notching up a mere eight all season.
A tally of 32 goals conceded is unsurprisingly also the worst record in the division, but only 12 of those strikes have been scored against them at Carrow Road, and Smith needs no extra motivation to get one over his old employers.
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Aston Villa held their own for much of Steven Gerrard's reunion at Anfield, as a normally free-scoring Liverpool outfit could not find a way past a dogged Villa defence, marshalled by the inspired Emiliano Martinez.
However, Tyrone Mings handed Mohamed Salah the opportunity to keep his remarkable run going from the penalty spot, and despite some mind games from Martinez, the Egyptian attacker slotted home to break the Lions' resilience.
Take nothing away from Villa's performances since Gerrard took over, as even Manchester City struggled to get over the line in the West Midlands, but a second defeat from three matches means that the Lions now sit 13th in the rankings after Sunday's games.
With six defeats from their eight away matches in the 2021-22 Premier League, Villa do not exactly have an affinity for playing on rival turf, but the visiting crop will certainly expect to return to winning ways against the basement boys.
Villa thrashed Norwich 5-1 at Carrow Road in the 2019-20 season before claiming a low-key 1-0 win at their headquarters later that term, but the Canaries did embark on a four-game home winning streak against the Lions before that top-flight encounter.
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Team News
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Norwich defender Brandon Williams will return after being ineligible to face his parent club, but Christos Tzolis tested positive for COVID-19 before the Man United defeat.
Smith is hopeful that Ben Gibson could return in midweek, but Mathias Normann, Christoph Zimmermann, Andrew Omobamidele and Milot Rashica are all set to remain sidelined.
Grant Hanley was taken off after 21 minutes on Saturday due to a shoulder problem and will also miss out, so 19-year-old Jonathan Tomkinson could be thrust into action if Gibson does not return in time.
As for Villa, Gerrard has Leon Bailey and Bertrand Traore's thigh problems to worry about, with neither man expected to return before 2022.
Reports have claimed that the Lions have also been hit with a COVID-19 outbreak ahead of Tuesday's game, but only one unnamed player is said to have contracted the virus, so the match should go ahead as planned.
Emiliano Buendia and Danny Ings could provide fresh legs in the final third for Villa, while Morgan Sanson is a candidate to replace Marvelous Nakamba, who is now set for a period on the sidelines with a knee issue.
Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Krul; Aarons, Gibson, Kabak, Williams; McLean, Gilmour, Lees Melou; Sargent, Pukki, Cantwell
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Targett; McGinn, Sanson, Luiz; Buendia, Ings, Watkins
We say: Norwich City 0-1 Aston Villa
Even with a fully-fit squad, Norwich would always have a hard time breaking down this Villa defence, no matter how much Smith is determined to get one over his old club.
The visitors have plenty of options for fresh legs in the final third and are truly benefitting from Gerrard's winning mentality, so we can only envisage a return to winning ways for the Lions.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 36.43%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 36.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (10.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
