Blackburn Rovers will be looking to halt their worst run of form this season when they travel to Nottingham Forest on Saturday.
Rovers were beaten 2-1 by Barnsley on Wednesday – their third successive defeat – and they now sit 12th in the Championship table, while Forest occupy 18th position.
Match preview
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Blackburn's goal at Oakwell was only a consolation as Adam Armstrong notched in the 94th minute at the end of an underwhelming performance from Tony Mowbray's side.
Rovers are the fourth-highest scorers in the Championship but after netting 31 goals in their first 16 league games, they have managed only 12 in their last 13.
This has meant that their playoff ambitions have faded into the distance; indeed, they are now 10 points behind the top six, almost as close as they are to the relegation zone.
Blackburn have not lost four consecutive league games since February 2019 and will be particularly keen to break their duck against Forest as they then face the current top five in their following eight matches.
The Reds have won the most recent two fixtures between the sides – including a 1-0 win in October in Chris Hughton's first game in charge – but those are their only two victories in the last 11 meetings.
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While Forest have never been too far away from relegation danger in Hughton's four months at the helm, they have undoubtedly improved under the former Brighton and Hove Albion boss and are currently five points above the bottom three.
A narrow 1-0 loss to promotion-chasing Swansea City on Wednesday was only their second defeat in 12 league matches, and Hughton claimed that "we should have not only not lost, but won" at the Liberty Stadium.
Forest have won four of their 15 league games at the City Ground this season, with their last two home games ending goalless against Barnsley and Bournemouth.
The Reds have tended to struggle for goals across the campaign, with Lyle Taylor the only player in the squad to have netted more than three times.
After this weekend, Forest face two vital away games against East Midlands rivals Derby County, who sit a place above them, and then Rotherham United, who occupy the spot just above the bottom three.
Nottingham Forest Championship form: LDWWDL
Nottingham Forest form (all competitions): LDWWDL
Blackburn Rovers Championship form: DWWLLL
Team News
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Luke Freeman missed Forest's defeat to Swansea as his wife gave birth the day before the game, but the winger should be back into the team on Saturday.
There is also likely to be a return to the side for Glenn Murray, who was rested on Wednesday, but Forest missed his clinical edge upfront before he came on in the 75th-minute.
Hughton is hopeful of having Ryan Yates available, with the midfielder missing the last month with a calf injury.
It was a surprise to see Mowbray switch to a back three against Barnsley, and he is likely to revert to his most used 4-3-3 system on Saturday.
Harvey Elliott is in contention to come back into the side after starting the last two games on the bench, while Joe Rothwell and Ben Brereton may also be recalled to the first XI.
Bradley Johnson and Joe Rankin-Costello are both back in training after injuries, but Mowbray has admitted that he will not rush either player back into first team action.
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Samba; Christie; Figueiredo, Worrall, Ribeiro; Garner, Cafu; Knockaert, Krovinovic, Freeman; Murray
Blackburn Rovers possible starting lineup:
Kaminski; Harwood-Bellis, Lenihan, Branthwaite, Douglas; Travis, Evans, Rothwell; Elliott, Armstrong, Brereton
We say: Nottingham Forest 1-0 Blackburn Rovers
While both clubs suffered defeats in midweek, Forest will have more confidence than a Blackburn side that find themselves stuck firmly in a rut; these two teams have not tended to score too many goals lately so we are backing a one-goal home win.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 30.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
