Cagliari will be bidding to use home advantage to secure a positive result in the first leg of their Serie B playoff semi-final against Parma on Tuesday night.
Gli Isolani booked their spot in the final four courtesy of a 2-1 success over Venezia on Saturday, while Parma qualified for the semi-finals due to finishing fourth in Italy's second tier.
Match preview
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Cagliari were relegated from Serie A at the end of the 2021-22 campaign, ultimately finishing 18th in the table, so they are attempting to return to the top flight at the first time of asking.
The Red and Blues picked up 60 points from their 38 Serie B matches to finish fifth in the table, which saw them qualify for the promotion playoffs preliminary round.
Cagliari took on Venezia for a place in the semi-finals, and Claudio Ranieri's side managed to record a 2-1 victory, with Gianluca Lapadula netting a first-half double for the home side.
Gli Isolani were actually level on points with Parma at the end of the season, but they finished fifth due to their inferior head-to-head record, with Parma running out 2-1 winners in April, while the reverse match between the two teams at the home of Cagliari finished in a 1-1 draw.
Ranieri will be aware of the importance of picking up a positive result in the first leg, and Cagliari only lost eight times in the league in 2022-23, with too many draws (15) preventing them from pushing higher up the table.
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Parma, meanwhile, were relegated from Serie A at the end of the 2020-21 campaign, picking up just 20 points from 38 matches during a disappointing campaign.
The Crusaders are now in a position to challenge for a return to the top level, though, with a total of 60 points from 38 matches during the Serie B season seeing them finish fourth in the table.
The Yellow and Blues automatically qualified for the semi-finals of the playoffs, so they have not been in action since beating Venezia 2-1 on May 19.
Fabio Pecchia's side will enter this match in excellent form, having won six of their last eight matches, while they have not lost since the middle of March away to Como.
Parma will be the fresher of the two teams, which could play a major role in the first leg of this last-four contest, and the winner of the semi-final will take on either Sudtirol or Bari for a position in Serie A.
Team News
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Cagliari will again be missing Filippo Falco, Elio Capradossi and Luigi Palomba through injury for the first leg of their playoff semi-final with Parma on Tuesday night.
However, the home side have no fresh fitness issues from their win over Venezia, and head coach Ranieri could therefore name an unchanged side for the first whistle.
Lapadula has been in excellent form this season, scoring 24 goals in all competitions, and the 33-year-old will again lead the Cagliari line in this contest.
Parma will again be without the services of Lautaro Valenti due to a long-term knee injury, while Drissa Camara is suspended due to the milestone booking that he picked up against Venezia last time out.
Camara would have been in contention for a start here considering his impressive performance and goal off the bench in the team's last game, but he will not be available for selection.
Parma will again have 45-year-old Gianluigi Buffon between the sticks, while Franco Vazquez will lead the line, with the 34-year-old scoring 11 times in all competitions during a strong campaign.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Radunovic; Zappa, Dossena, Altare, Obert; Makoumbou, Deiola; Nandez, Mancosu, Luvumbo; Lapadula
Parma possible starting lineup:
Buffon; Del Prato, Osorio, Circati, Coulibaly; Estevez, Bernabe; Zanimacchia, Sohm, Man; Vazquez
We say: Cagliari 1-1 Parma
The two teams played out a 1-1 draw when they locked horns at the home of Cagliari earlier this season, and we can see the same result in this match. The league table shows that there is hardly anything to choose between them, and we are expecting this semi-final to be incredibly tight across the two legs.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 46.93%. A win for Parma had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
Top tip
Matt Law
