After suffering heavy defeats in their opening two matches of the new season, Peterborough United will be hoping to claim their first Championship win at home against a depleted Derby County side on Saturday lunchtime.
The two teams last faced each other in April 2013, with Nigel Clough's Rams securing a 3-1 league victory at Pride Park.
Match preview
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Peterborough have begun the 2021-22 campaign in the worst possible fashion, losing their opening league game 3-0 away at Luton Town last weekend, before suffering a heavy 4-0 loss at home to League One side Plymouth Argyle in the first round of the League Cup on Tuesday, their fifth consecutive exit at this stage.
Manager Darren Ferguson, who had his father Sir Alex Ferguson in attendance against the Green Army, was "embarrassed" by his side's performance and has urged his players to "toughen up" if they are to quickly turn their fortunes around.
Peterborough's last campaign in the Championship began with a torrid run of seven straight defeats en route to their relegation in 2012-13. Ferguson cannot afford to have such a terrible run of form once again.
Promoted as League One runners up last season, the Posh were known for their attacking prowess scoring 83 goals in their 46 league matches, more than any other side in the division.
With Jonson Clarke-Harris, who was the league's top goalscorer with 31 strikes to his name, leading the line once again this season, Ferguson will be hopeful that he and the other attacking players around their central striker can find their form quickly in front of goal.
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After earning a respectable 1-1 draw at home against Huddersfield Town with a threadbare senior squad, Derby County followed that up with a 5-3 victory on penalties against League Two side Salford City, in a game which ended as an entertaining 3-3 draw in 90 minutes.
The Rams went 2-0 down in the first 14 minutes, but were able to draw level when Colin Kazim-Richards converted from the spot in the 71st minute.
Josh Morris scored his second of the game, also from the penalty spot, just three minutes later to put the visitors back in front, before a brilliant strike from debutant Ravel Morrison took the tie to penalties, with youngster Louie Watson then scoring the decisive spot-kick to send the Rams through.
Wayne Rooney described their penalty shootout win as his "proudest moment" as a manager to date and was delighted with how his side came from behind in front of their own supporters.
Derby head into Saturday's trip to Peterborough after failing to win any of their last nine away games. The Rams also ended last season as the league's joint-lowest scorers on the road.
Every game is considered a challenge for Rooney's men but if they are to claim their first three points of the new campaign, a fixture against an out-of-form Posh outfit could be the perfect encounter for them to have.
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Team News
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Peterborough winger Siriki Dembele, who has been heavily linked with a summer exit, has missed the last two matches with a hamstring injury and the 24-year-old is set to miss out once again this weekend.
Midfielder Jack Taylor is also unavailable for selection as he continues to recover from a knee problem.
Ferguson is set recall several first-team players to his starting lineup who did not feature in the League Cup, with Christy Pym, Mark Beevers, Dan Butler, Joe Ward, Sammie Szmodics and Clarke-Harris all expected to start on Saturday.
As for Derby, Rooney made eight changes for their League Cup clash in midweek and all eight are set to return to the starting lineup.
Defenders Nathan Byrne, Curtis Davies and Richard Stearman are expected to come in for youngsters Festy Ebosele, Jordan Brown and Dylan Williams, with Kelle Roos replacing Ryan Allsop in goal.
In midfield, Max Bird and Graeme Shinnie are set to start at the expense of Isaac Hutchinson and Louie Sibley, with captain Tom Lawrence expected to play in the number 10 role ahead of new recruit Morrison.
Experienced striker Kazim-Richards will likely lead the line as the lone centre-forward and is set to replace Jack Stretton who played against Salford.
Peterborough United possible starting lineup:
Pym; Thompson, Kent, Beevers, Butler; Ward, Knight, Grant, Tomlinson; Szmodics, Clarke-Harris
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Davies, Stearman, Forsyth; Bird, Shinnie; Jozwiak, Lawrence, Watson; Kazim-Richards
We say: Peterborough United 1-2 Derby County
Peterborough were one of just two Championship sides who failed to score on the opening day, but we fancy them to find the net this weekend.
Derby, meanwhile, are taking positive momentum into Saturday's game and even though they have a depleted squad, their starting lineup will be able to compete against the Posh.
A closely-fought contest is set to be played out at the Weston Homes Stadium, but we feel that the visitors could surprise many and secure a narrow victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 43.6%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Peterborough United would win this match.
