For the first time since 2018, the Portland Timbers will host a playoff game at Providence Park in front of fans, and that match takes place on Sunday versus Minnesota United in a winner take all first-round encounter in MLS.
The Timbers finished the 2021 regular season in fourth place in the Western Conference, winning their final three matches, while the Loons came in fifth and are unbeaten in their last two games heading into this contest.
Match preview
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With their backs up against the wall earlier this summer, winning only once in between July 24 and August 21, Portland were able to dig themselves out of that slump with seven wins in their next eight games despite dealing with a slew of injuries.
This is an experienced group that Giovanni Savarese has brought together and one that know how to flip a switch when needed, having qualified for the MLS Cup Playoffs now in each of their previous five campaigns.
Clearing that first postseason hurdle has proven quite challenging for the MLS is Back Tournament winners, as they failed to make it beyond the first round in 2019 and lost in a heartbreaking penalty shootout a year ago to Dallas, conceding the equaliser deep into injury time.
They are spoiled when it comes to attacking choices, with 50 goals scored from 12 different players and a ton of talent and creativity that opposing defences will need to be aware of.
They ended the regular season firing on all cylinders with five different players scoring eight times in their final three games and also benefiting from an own goal.
As potent as they are in the final third, though, they do leave themselves susceptible to conceding, primarily due to their fullbacks, who tend to run themselves out of position and take unnecessary risks to join the attack.
Out of the 14 teams who are in the playoffs this year, Portland have conceded the second-most goals (52) and even more troubling is the fact that according to Opta, their expected goals against this year was 61.92, which puts them in dead last in that category among MLS teams, even worse than FC Cincinnati, who conceded 74 goals this season.
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Early on in this campaign, there was a time when it seemed like Minnesota would be near the bottom of the standings, losing their opening four matches of the regular season.
To his credit, though, Adrian Heath made a bold move by replacing Dayne St. Clair in goal with Tyler Miller, and that change seemed to spark the Loons.
Miller has been spectacular since winning the starting job, maintaining 11 clean sheets this season and stealing his share of games for this team.
They come into the playoffs as the only side remaining with an inferior goal difference (-2) but they are a team that are well-built to handle these one-off games, as they have a few outstanding individuals who can elevate their play at this time of year.
Possession is nine-tenths of the law, but that does not always apply to the beautiful game, especially when you look at Minnesota, whose most emphatic win this year came against the Los Angeles Galaxy when they only had the ball for 38% of the match, but still won 3-0.
These players are capable of getting into the danger areas of the field, sitting fourth in corner kicks this year with 190, but more often than not, taking advantage of those set-piece opportunities has proven difficult for them.
This is a team with some solid holding midfielders in Will Trapp and Osvaldo Alonso, who are great when it comes to covering space and winning balls deep in their end, but neither have a ton of creativity or playmaking ability to link up the play from the defence up to some of their danger men.
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Team News
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Diego Valeri has five goals in his career versus Minnesota, but he only scored twice this year, putting him into a tie on the team with Diego Chara, Marvin Loria and George Fochive.
Dairon Asprilla had a breakout campaign offensively for the Timbers, scoring 10 goals, which put him second on the team heading into the playoffs behind Felipe Mora, while Sebastian Blanco was invaluable throughout the regular season, scoring seven times and adding another seven assists.
Bill Tuiloma and Mora are questionable with a right lower leg and left thigh injury respectively, while Blake Bodily also has a left thigh issue, Eryk Williamson is out with a left ACL tear, Andy Polo had season-ending right quad and knee surgery, Jeff Attinella underwent season-ending right rectus femoris surgery months ago and Ismaila Jome went through left Achilles tendon surgery and will not return this season.
This weekend, Justin McMaster is the only one doubtful to play for Minnesota, as the Jamaican midfielder has a thigh injury.
It is hard to imagine this side could have gone anywhere this season without Emmanuel Reynoso, who had five goals and four assists in 2021, and he led the league in pressured progressive (i.e. forward or diagonal) passes in the attacking half with 274.
Besides Reynoso, their next most prominent attacking options would be Robin Lod and Adrien Hunou, who had nine and seven goals, respectively, as they each scored a winning goal versus the Timbers this season.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Clark; Van Rankin, Tuiloma, Zuparic, Bravo; Paredes, D. Chara; Asprilla, Blanco, Y. Chara; Niezgoda
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
Miller; Gasper, Dibassy, Boxall, Metanire; Trapp, Alonso; Lod, Reynoso, Gregus; Hunou
We say: Portland Timbers 2-0 Minnesota United
Previous results this year between these sides mean absolutely nothing in the playoffs, and despite boasting some outstanding individuals, Minnesota will have a hard time matching the speed, endurance and aggressiveness that Portland possesses.
Expect the Timbers to leave some gaps in behind, but lucky for them, the Loons do not have a midfielder who has the vision to pick out those dangerous players.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 51.92%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 25.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.
