Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Watford had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.