Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 63.83%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 15.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.19%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.