Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 33.08% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.