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Brescia logo
Serie A | Gameweek 32
Jul 11, 2020 at 6.30pm UK
Stadio Mario Rigamonti
Roma logo

Brescia
0 - 3
Roma


Tonali (9')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Fazio (48'), Kalinic (62'), Zaniolo (74')
Peres (61'), Perotti (86')

Preview: Brescia vs. Roma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Brescia and Roma, including team news and predicted lineups.

Roma will be looking to make it back-to-back wins in Serie A when they continue their 2019-20 campaign away to relegation-threatened Brescia on Saturday night.

Paulo Fonseca's side will enter the match off the back of a 2-1 victory over Parma on Wednesday, while 19th-placed Brescia suffered a 3-1 loss at Torino on the same night.


Match preview

Brescia midfielder Sandro Tonali pictured in October 2019© Reuters

Brescia are in danger of immediately dropping back into Serie B, with Diego Lopez's side facing a huge battle to secure their status as a top-flight club for the 2020-21 campaign.

Indeed, a return of 21 points from 31 matches has left Le Rondinelle in 19th position in the table, seven points behind 17th-placed Lecce, which is a lot at this stage of the season.

It is going to take some effort from Lopez's team to escape the relegation zone, although there is still a lot of football to be played, with the Serie A season not concluding until the start of August.

Brescia have struggled for positive results at home this season, though, picking up just 10 points from their 15 matches, which is the second-worst record in Serie A behind basement side SPAL.

Paulo Fonseca pictured as Roma boss in August 2019© Reuters

Roma, meanwhile, appear to be locked in a three-way battle with Napoli and AC Milan for fifth place.

A top-four position looks to be beyond Fonseca's side as they trail fourth-placed Inter Milan by 13 points, but the Yellow and Reds will be determined to claim fifth, which would be an improvement on last season.

Roma's form immediately after lockdown was poor, losing three of their four league matches between June 24 and July 5, including defeats to Milan and Napoli.

I Giallorossi picked up a hugely important 2-1 victory over Parma on Wednesday night, though, with Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Jordan Veretout scoring the goals for the hosts at Stadio Olimpico.

Roma's away form this season has also been relatively strong, losing just five of their 15 Serie A matches on their travels, picking up seven victories in the process.

Brescia Serie A form: LDDLWL

Roma Serie A form: WWLLLW


Team News

Chris Smalling in action for Roma in November 2019© Reuters

Dimitri Bisoli remains on the sidelines for Brescia with a tendon injury, but Andrea Cistana is back in training following an ankle problem and could potentially be involved.

Mario Balotelli will again not be involved following a dispute with the club's hierarchy, meaning that Alfredo Donnarumma should continue in the final third of the field.

Sandro Tonali continues to be linked with some of Europe's biggest clubs, and the 20-year-old will again be keen to make an impression for the hosts in the middle of the park.

As for Roma, defensive duo Chris Smalling and Juan Jesus remain on the sidelines with thigh injuries, while a muscular problem means that Davide Santon is still a doubt.

Justin Kluivert will be hoping for a return to the squad, having allegedly been left out against Parma due to concerns over his attitude in training, while Davide Zappacosta is also in line to feature.

Mkhitaryan and Lorenzo Pellegrini could both keep their positions alongside Eden Dzeko, although there is expected to be a change in midfield with Nicolo Zaniolo set to return.

Brescia possible starting lineup:
Joronen; Sabelli, Papetti, Mateju, Martella; Spalek, Dessena, Tonali, Bjarnason; Donnarumma, Torregrossa

Roma possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Mancini, Cristante, Ibanez; Zappacosta, Zaniolo, Veretout, Spinazzola; Mkhitaryan, Dzeko, Pellegrini


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Brescia 0-2 Roma

Roma will be determined to pick up all three points as they battle for fifth, and we are finding it difficult to predict anything other than an away win. Brescia are capable of making it an uncomfortable game for the visitors, but it is tough to back Lopez's side considering their struggles this term.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 57.5%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Brescia had a probability of 21.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.75%) and 0-2 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.89%), while for a Brescia win it was 2-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108


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