Taking part in a top-level continental game for the first time in 66 years, Royal Antwerp host AEK Athens in the first leg of their Champions League playoff-round tie on Tuesday.
While the Belgian champions enter the tournament at the final qualification hurdle, their Greek visitors had to overcome Dinamo Zagreb in the most dramatic of circumstances in round three.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite finishing three points worse off than Genk and Union SG in the 2022-23 Belgian Pro League regular-season table, Royal Antwerp's playoff prowess saw them edge out their fellow title rivals - as well as Club Brugge - to win their first top-flight crown since 1957.
With domestic stardom comes a path into Champions League football, and Antwerp return to the big time 66 years on from their inaugural European Cup appearance, which ended prematurely in an 8-1 first-round aggregate thumping to eventual winners Real Madrid.
However, Antwerp have slowly risen from the doldrums to reach the Europa League group stage in both the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns, although their attempts to reach last year's Europa Conference League proper came to an end at the hands of Istanbul Basaksehir.
Under the wing of Dutch icon Mark van Bommel since 2022, Antwerp have already added another piece of silverware to the cabinet this term - beating KV Mechelen on penalties in the Belgian Super Cup - but the start of their title defence could have gone better.
Either side of home wins against Cercle Brugge and Kortrijk, the champions have lost to Anderlecht and most recently accepted a point in a 1-1 draw versus OH Leuven on Friday, and their continental nous is far inferior to that of their upcoming foes.
© Reuters
Disgraceful scenes of fan disorder overshadowed AEK Athens' third-round qualifying tie with Dinamo Zagreb earlier this month, as the first leg of the contest - which was due to be held in Athens - was pushed back following the death of a man in supporter riots.
As a result, the Greek champions commenced their campaign in Zagreb - coming away with a 2-1 first-leg success thanks to Konstantinos Galanopoulos's 90th-minute winner - before the rescheduled Athens stage of the tie was also decided in equally gripping circumstances.
Matias Almeyda's men were on the brink of elimination, entering second-half injury time 2-0 down courtesy of Robert Ljubicic and Josip Sutalo's efforts, but a Sergio Araujo strike preceded an astonishing winner from former Dinamo Zagreb defender and Croatia legend Domagoj Vida with 100 minutes on the clock; Dominik Livakovic had kept out a Levi Garcia penalty, but Vida was on hand to crash home the rebound, rendering the Dinamo Zagreb goalkeeper's heroic stop inconsequential.
Few could have written such a spectacular script for Saturday's European tie, as Vida consigned his old employers to Europa League football while keeping AEK Athens in with a shot of a first Champions League group-stage appearance since the 2018-19 season, where they unsurprisingly fell to Ajax, Benfica and Bayern Munich's superiority.
Antwerp and AEK Athens are yet to square off on the competitive stage, but the visitors have only ever won one of their previous 12 clashes with Belgian opposition, offering Van Bommel's side some hope of a prolonged Champions League adventure.
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
These days, the Antwerp line is led by former Tottenham Hotspur striker Vincent Janssen, who netted his fourth goal of the campaign against Leuven on Friday before coming off with an apparent injury 10 minutes before the end.
Janssen is not thought to be nursing anything severe, but Van Bommel has several concerns further back, as goalkeeping duo Ortwin De Wolf (finger) and Davino Verhulst (eye) will both sit out Tuesday's historic battle.
Centre-back Bjorn Engels is also dealing with an Achilles issue, leaving the experienced Toby Alderweireld to shoulder the defensive burden, while highly-rated teenager Arthur Vermeeren could have a few admirers keeping an eye on his performance in the number six role.
Meanwhile, AEK Athens have not had to concern themselves with domestic duties just yet given their rescheduled third-round tie, and Almeyda should be taking an identical squad to the Bosuilstadion.
Only Spanish winger Paolo Fernandes should be missing, as the 25-year-old battles back from an Achilles issue which could keep him out until 2024, and his spot will be covered by Nordin Amrabat, whose brother Sofyan Amrabat has been at the centre of a tense transfer tussle between some of Europe's biggest clubs in recent months.
Royal Antwerp possible starting lineup:
Butez; Bataille, De Laet, Alderweireld, Avila; Ekkelenkamp, Vermeeren, Balikwisha; Kerk, Janssen, Ondrejka
AEK Athens possible starting lineup:
Stankovic; Sidibe, Vida, Moukoudi, Hajsafi; Jonsson, Szymanski; Amrabat, Zuber, Pineda; Araujo
We say: Royal Antwerp 1-0 AEK Athens
Emotions may still be running high for AEK Athens in the wake of Saturday's extraordinary progression, but Almeyda's men should still offer a stern test to an Antwerp team who have not completely covered themselves in glory in recent weeks.
Fatigue from a long journey to Belgium should eventually catch up to AEK, though, and Antwerp are seldom outfought on their own patch, so we can envisage the Belgian champions travelling to Athens with a slender lead to protect.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Royal Antwerp win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Royal Antwerp win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Royal Antwerp in this match.
Ben Knapton
