Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 64.51%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for St Johnstone had a probability of 13.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.24%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a St Johnstone win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.