Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 61.61%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 16.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.07%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Kilmarnock win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hearts would win this match.
Result | ||
Hearts | Draw | Kilmarnock |
61.61% ( -0.06) | 21.57% ( 0.02) | 16.81% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 50.43% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.5% ( -0.01) | 46.5% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.22% ( -0.01) | 68.78% ( 0.01) |
Hearts Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.43% ( -0.02) | 14.57% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.37% ( -0.04) | 42.62% ( 0.04) |
Kilmarnock Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.02% ( 0.04) | 40.97% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.46% ( 0.04) | 77.53% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Hearts | Draw | Kilmarnock |
1-0 @ 11.49% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11.07% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.35% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.06% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.83% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.36% 5-0 @ 1.32% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0) Other @ 2.53% Total : 61.6% | 1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.97% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.94% Total : 21.56% | 0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.31% ( 0) Other @ 1.86% Total : 16.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Celtic | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 64 | 11 | 53 | 60 |
2 | RangersRangers | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 18 | 26 | 47 |
3 | Dundee UnitedDundee Utd | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 37 |
4 | Aberdeen | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 35 |
5 | Motherwell | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 31 |
6 | Hibernian | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 30 |
7 | St Mirren | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 30 |
8 | Dundee | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 27 |
9 | Hearts | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 27 |
10 | Ross County | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 26 |
11 | Kilmarnock | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 25 |
12 | St Johnstone | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 18 |
> Scottish Premiership Full Table |