Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 43.43%. A draw had a probability of 31.9% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 24.69%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (7.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.08%), while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alaves in this match.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Burgos
43.43% ( -0.48)	31.88% ( 0.21)	24.69% ( 0.27)

Both teams to score 34.66% (

-0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

27.67% (

-0.4)

72.33% (

0.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

11.31% (

-0.24)

88.69% (

0.24)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.28% (

-0.5)

33.72% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.62% (

-0.55)

70.38% (

0.55)

Burgos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

52.29% (

0.01)

47.71% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.98% (

0.01)

83.02% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Alaves 43.42%

Burgos 24.69%

Draw 31.87%

Alaves	Draw	Burgos
1-0 @ 17.48% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.51% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 7.04% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.53% Total : 43.42%	0-0 @ 16.08% ( 0.23) 1-1 @ 12.94% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.25% Total : 31.87%	0-1 @ 11.9% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.18% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.32% Total : 24.69%