Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 41.72%. A win for Livorno had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Livorno win was 1-0 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cremonese would win this match.