Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.