Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 47.36%. A win for Iceland Women had a probability of 28.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Iceland Women win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA Women would win this match.
