Sporting Lisbon welcome Pacos de Ferreira to the Estadio Jose Alvalade on Monday, in an intriguing game between two sides in strong form at the top end of the Primeira Liga table.
The home side currently sit at the top of the division, while the visitors have enjoyed a rise up to fifth, thanks to a run of nine league games without a loss.
Match preview
© Reuters
In his second season managing in the top flight, Ruben Amorim has Sporting Lisbon on track for their first Primeira Liga title since 2002, currently sitting at the summit of the division, eight points clear of second-placed Porto.
The 36-year-old has taken charge of 37 games since his arrival in the Portuguese capital, winning 27 of those, and losing just four.
Meanwhile, the side from Lisbon remain unbeaten in the Primeira Liga this campaign, picking up 48 out of a possible 54 points at this stage of the season.
That is in no small part down to their strong defence, with no side in the division matching their 10 goals conceded from 18 matches.
Amorim's men have won their last six games in all competitions, including their last four league matches, most recently winning late in a dramatic encounter away at Gil Vicente.
The hosts led for the majority of the match, before Sporting defender Sebastian Coates scored a late brace, heading in the winner in added time to seal their 15th league win of the season.
Before that, Os Leoes recorded a 2-0 win over Maritimo, following a crucial 1-0 victory against title rivals Benfica, with Matheus Nunes bagging an added-time winner to increase the gap between themselves and the sides in pursuit of the top spot.
They face another tough test on Monday, taking on a Pacos de Ferreira side who are yet to lose in league action since the turn of the year, threatening the winning run of Amorim's side.
© Reuters
Pepa's side's run has seen them move up to fifth in the table, having picked up 19 points out of a possible 21 this year.
That included a run of six consecutive wins, picking up 13 goals in the process, while only conceding two.
As a result, Pacos de Ferreira currently boast one of the best defensive records in the league, with only Monday's opponents conceding fewer than the 14 they have shipped in the top flight.
Last time out, Os Castores dropped points for the first time since the turn of the year, when they played out a goalless draw with strugglers Portimonense.
However, they do remain in a strong position in the league, sitting only two points behind Braga, who occupy third spot.
That means that a win here could move Pepa's side into the top three, however that is far from an easy task, as they take on a Sporting side who are marching towards their 19th Primeira Liga trophy.
Sporting Lisbon Primeira Liga form: WDWWWW
Sporting Lisbon form (all competitions): WWWWWW
Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form: WWWWWD
Team News
© Reuters
Sporting Lisbon should have a full squad to pick from, other than forward Luiz Phellype, who remains out with a long-term ligament injury.
The league leaders stole the Primeira Liga headlines on deadline day, securing the signing of striker Paulinho, who has led the line in both games since his arrival from Braga.
He will be joined in attack by the dangerous Pedro Goncalves, who tops the league's scoring charts with 14 goals from 16 appearances in Primeira Liga action since his arrival in the summer.
Pedro Porro will also feature on the right-hand side for Sporting, having impressed for Amorim's side since his loan move from Manchester City.
The visitors also have a full squad to pick from, apart from full-back Jorge Silva, who is yet to feature this season due to a long-term injury.
Stephen Eustaquio is expected to start again in the middle for Pepa's side, after Os Castores smashed their transfer record to bring him in from Cruz Azul in January.
Since the departure of Oleg Reabciuk in the recent transfer window, Pedro Rebocho has featured at left-back for Pacos de Ferreira, after he was brought in on loan from Guingamp to replace the Moldovan international.
Joao Amaral and Helder Ferreira will be battling for the right-wing spot, with one of those two expected to join Douglas Tanque and Luther Singh in attack.
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adan; Inacio, Coates, Feddal; Porro, Nunes, Palhinha, Antunes; Goncalves, Paulinho, Santos
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Marcelo, Gonzaga, Rebocho; Eustaquio, Diaby, Carlos; Ferreira, Tanque, Singh
We say: Sporting Lisbon 1-0 Pacos de Ferreira
While this game could represent one of Sporting Lisbon's toughest tests so far this season, we expect the league leaders to come out with a narrow win here, seeing off a resilient Pacos de Ferreira side.
As two of the league's best defences square off, we see this being a game of few goals, with a Pedro Goncalves finish potentially separating the sides at the Estadio Jose Alvalade.
Top betting tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 54.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 20.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
